The alternative to Putin being envisioned by figures like Melnichenko is not a Western-style democracy. Instead, they propose a more effective, predictable, and inclusive authoritarian system where the Kremlin serves the people, but power remains centralized.

The conflict is not just regional but a proxy war between two ideologies: Western democracies versus an alliance of totalitarian states (Russia, Iran, North Korea, China). Non-aligned nations like India and Brazil are watching to see which system proves more resilient before choosing a side.

Alexander Stubb outlines a threefold failure for Putin: strategically, he pushed Finland into NATO; militarily, he’s achieved minimal gains at catastrophic cost (e.g., 34,000 Russian soldiers killed in Dec.); and economically, Russia is crippled. Putin continues the war not to win, but to avoid the domestic fallout of admitting defeat.

The US conflict with Iran has destabilized the Gulf, which had become a critical safe haven for Russian capital and business elites fleeing sanctions. This new instability is creating internal pressure on Putin from powerful figures who now feel their wealth and business operations are at risk.

Historically, significant shifts in Russia, like the fall of the Soviet Union, are initiated by elites acting in their own self-interest, not by popular uprisings. The current discontent among oligarchs suggests a similar top-down transition could be forming.

While many free-thinking Russians either fled the country or fell silent after the 2022 invasion, Evgenia Berkovich chose a third path: she stayed in Russia while continuing to write and create, including anti-war poetry. Her refusal to conform to the state-imposed dichotomy of exile or submission made her an intolerable example.

For a dictator, concepts like free speech and rule of law are an existential threat that can ignite street revolutions. This is why Russia invaded Ukraine: to crush a neighboring democratic movement before its contagious ideas could spread.

For most of the war, the Russian populace could ignore the conflict. However, Ukrainian drone strikes causing fuel shortages and hitting factories have made the war a domestic problem, creating a sense of futility and palpable discontent that the elite can no longer ignore.

In Russia, nominally private companies like Gazprom function as direct extensions of the state. Their international investments are designed not just for profit but to achieve geopolitical goals, creating a system where foreign policy, business interests, and the personal wealth of the ruling class are completely inseparable.