A key tactic in dismantling democracy is creating a national force like ICE that operates outside local accountability structures. Such forces can intimidate voters and suppress dissent with impunity, as their loyalty is to the leader, not the law.
In a declining democracy, the government can dictate which companies thrive. This incentivizes business leaders to abandon prior principles and praise the ruling power to protect their market position and status against competitors.
Assuming history follows an inevitable path—whether toward democratic triumph or decline—is dangerous because it removes personal agency. The future is determined by present-day choices, not a pre-written script, and complacency allows threats to grow.
The fundamental shift to autocracy occurs when the legal system is no longer a neutral arbiter. Instead, it becomes an instrument of power for the leader, where legal decisions are dictated by political expediency rather than established statutes.
The contemporary threat to democracy isn't a violent overthrow. It's a gradual erosion of neutral institutions like courts, media, and electoral commissions by leaders who were democratically elected, a model pioneered by Hungary's Viktor Orbán.
The old model of a censor red-penning articles is outdated. The new strategy, seen in Hungary and Turkey, involves the state helping political allies acquire newspapers and TV stations, thereby controlling the narrative at the ownership level.
Due to perceived US instability, traditional allies in Europe and Canada are proactively diversifying their partnerships. They are creating alternative trade and security networks (e.g., EU-India, Canada-EU) to reduce their dependence on the United States.
For the first time, a sitting U.S. president is running businesses where foreign governments invest billions into family funds. This blurs the line between national interest and personal enrichment, mirroring the kleptocratic systems of autocracies like Russia.
Liberal democracy is a relatively recent and fragile experiment. For most of human history, societies have been organized under autocratic rule like monarchies or warlords. The US founders studied the fall of Rome and Athens, aware of this fragility.
For a dictator, concepts like free speech and rule of law are an existential threat that can ignite street revolutions. This is why Russia invaded Ukraine: to crush a neighboring democratic movement before its contagious ideas could spread.
The likely outcome for a declining democracy isn't a totalitarian regime. It's a system with the facade of democracy, like elections, but where one party has manipulated the rules (e.g., gerrymandering) to ensure it can no longer lose power nationally.
The push for specific forms of ID, like passports, isn't just about security. It's a calculated strategy to reduce turnout among groups that disproportionately lack them, like married women whose names don't match their birth certificate.