A key asymmetry exists in the air war: Ukrainian drones attacking Russia are comparatively less powerful and function as political messaging. In contrast, Russia stockpiles missiles for intense, combined-arms aerial assaults designed to overwhelm defenses and cause maximum damage.
Forced back to Russia by sanctions, oligarch Andrey Melnichenko is not an anti-war rebel but a pragmatist. His business is now directly affected by the war's consequences, aligning his self-interest with changing the country's disastrous trajectory.
The alternative to Putin being envisioned by figures like Melnichenko is not a Western-style democracy. Instead, they propose a more effective, predictable, and inclusive authoritarian system where the Kremlin serves the people, but power remains centralized.
While Ukraine successfully intercepts ~95% of drones, its critical vulnerability is the lack of anti-ballistic missiles like Patriots. Global production cannot meet demand, a shortage exacerbated by other conflicts, leaving Ukrainian cities exposed to Russia's most destructive attacks.
For most of the war, the Russian populace could ignore the conflict. However, Ukrainian drone strikes causing fuel shortages and hitting factories have made the war a domestic problem, creating a sense of futility and palpable discontent that the elite can no longer ignore.
Historically, significant shifts in Russia, like the fall of the Soviet Union, are initiated by elites acting in their own self-interest, not by popular uprisings. The current discontent among oligarchs suggests a similar top-down transition could be forming.