Russia's interests are served by an isolated Iran that doesn't compete in European gas markets or its Central Asian sphere of influence. In contrast, China would gain from a stable, economically powerful Iran that can maximize its energy output and open its large market to global commerce.

The conflict provides a lifeline to Putin through higher energy prices and a distracted U.S. military. For China, every moment the U.S. is preoccupied with the Middle East is a moment it isn't focused on the Indo-Pacific, furthering their long-term strategic goals.

Despite reputational damage, America's status as a net energy producer insulates its economy from the oil price shocks devastating allies and emerging markets. This creates a flight to safety that paradoxically benefits the US dollar and markets, while Russia also profits handsomely.

Before the crisis, US pressure had halved India's imports of Russian crude. The Hormuz shutdown forces India and others to seek alternative supplies, making Russian oil essential again. This geopolitical turmoil has made Moscow its single greatest beneficiary, even prompting sanctions waivers from the White House.

Beyond financial diversification, Gulf States may be using their significant investments in American venture capital as a bargaining chip. By threatening to review or pull back these commitments, they can apply economic pressure on the US administration to seek diplomatic solutions to conflicts like the Iran war.

Despite his stated goal of lowering oil prices, President Trump's aggressive sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia have removed significant supply from the market. This creates logistical bottlenecks and "oil on water" buildups, effectively tightening the market and keeping prices higher than they would be otherwise.

Most analyses assume the U.S. can simply wear down Iran. This view ignores that the conflict is existential for China and Russia, who depend on regional stability. They possess significant leverage (e.g., control over U.S. military supply chains) and are unlikely to allow Iran to collapse.

While US strikes weaken Iran's military, Trump's simultaneous focus on keeping oil markets stable allows Iran to sell its oil at a premium. This creates a contradictory outcome where Iran's economic leverage and funding for future aggression increase, even as its military is degraded.

The main driver for US action against Iran is to stabilize the Gulf region to secure over $2 trillion in investment deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. These deals are the centerpiece of Trump's economic agenda, making the threat from Iran an existential economic one.