The goal for a majority-EV fleet is not viable with current technology. The material requirements for batteries and components are so vast that a US-only transition would consume every scrap of lithium, copper, graphite, and other key minerals produced globally, leaving none for any other country or industry.

While prices above $10,000/ton are expected to depress Chinese demand, the current supply disruption is so significant that this response is unlikely to restrain the price surge. The supply shock is the dominant market driver, overpowering near-term demand-side resistance.

An acute supply squeeze in copper is imminent as massive U.S. imports create a severe inventory dislocation. With LME stocks dwindling to critical levels, J.P. Morgan predicts prices must spike to reverse the arbitrage and incentivize the flow of metal out of the U.S. to where it's more needed.

With only four container ships arriving weekly and 6-10 days of food supply in the entire state, Alaska's supply chain is extraordinarily fragile. The Fed's Mary Daly personally experienced this when her hotel ran out of coffee because a single supply ship had a mechanical failure, demonstrating the state's extreme vulnerability to minor logistical disruptions.

Contrary to narratives about excess demand, the recent inflationary period was primarily driven by supply-side shocks from COVID-related disruptions. Evidence, such as the New York Fed's supply disruption index accurately predicting inflation's trajectory, supports this view over a purely demand-driven explanation.

High U.S. copper inventories (COMEX) are unavailable to the global market due to a persistent price premium over the LME. This regional inventory isolation means global supplies are much tighter than headline figures suggest, as the U.S. stockpile isn't alleviating scarcity elsewhere.

The Grasberg mine disruption provides a fundamental catalyst for higher copper prices. This is amplified by a macro environment where investors are rotating into real assets like copper due to inflation risks and economic uncertainty, creating a potent combination for a price surge.

The perceived global copper deficit is misleading. Sufficient inventory exists, but it's concentrated in the U.S. due to tariff-related import front-loading. The bull case for copper hinges on London Metal Exchange prices rising enough to incentivize the costly re-export of this 'trapped' copper to Asia.

For 50 years, commodity prices moved together, driven by synchronized global demand. J.P. Morgan identifies a breakdown of this trend since 2024, dubbing it the 'crocodile cycle,' where supply-side factors cause metals to outperform while energy underperforms, creating a widening gap like a crocodile's mouth.