JPMorgan forecasts a drop in central bank gold purchases in 2026. This isn't a bearish change in strategy, but a mechanical effect of higher prices. At over $4,000/oz, central banks can buy fewer tons to achieve their desired percentage allocation of gold reserves, indicating continued structural demand.
The perceived global copper deficit is misleading. Sufficient inventory exists, but it's concentrated in the U.S. due to tariff-related import front-loading. The bull case for copper hinges on London Metal Exchange prices rising enough to incentivize the costly re-export of this 'trapped' copper to Asia.
While investor demand drives headlines, the jewelry sector—40-50% of total demand—is under immense pressure from high prices. While currently compensated for by investment inflows, a sudden, sharp drop in jewelry consumption could emerge as a significant and overlooked drag on gold prices if the rally continues.