Contrary to the common perception of users paying off balances monthly ("transactors"), the majority—about 60%—are "revolvers" who carry debt. This group is the primary source of profit for card issuers, as they are subject to interest rates now averaging a staggering 23%.
The system of charging retailers an interchange fee (around 1.8%) that is then passed to consumers as rewards (around 1.57%) creates a strong network effect. Consumers are incentivized to use rewards cards, and retailers cannot easily offer discounts for other payment methods, locking both parties into the ecosystem.
A surprisingly large portion of high credit card APRs covers operating expenses, particularly marketing. Issuers like Amex and Capital One spend billions annually on customer acquisition. This spending is passed directly to consumers, as higher marketing budgets correlate with higher chargeable rates.
The same banks issuing high-interest credit cards offer substantially cheaper personal lines of credit to customers with identical FICO scores. Despite being a logical tool for consolidating expensive card debt, these products receive almost no marketing, making them largely invisible to consumers.
Consumers are largely insensitive to the interest rates they are charged, rarely seeking out cheaper options like credit union cards. This behavioral pattern means that cutting rates is an ineffective customer acquisition strategy. Instead, issuers invest heavily in marketing, which proves more effective at attracting new borrowers.
Contrary to narratives about excess demand, the recent inflationary period was primarily driven by supply-side shocks from COVID-related disruptions. Evidence, such as the New York Fed's supply disruption index accurately predicting inflation's trajectory, supports this view over a purely demand-driven explanation.
While many assume high credit card rates cover default risk, actual charge-offs on revolving balances average only 5.75%. This is a significant cost but accounts for less than a third of the typical interest rate spread, indicating that other factors like risk premiums and operating costs are major drivers.
While typical banks earn a 1-1.2% return on assets (ROA), credit card-focused banks achieve ROAs of 3.5-4%. This exceptional profitability, driven by high interest rates, explains why the sector is so attractive to new entrants, as it is one of the most profitable areas in all of finance.