The goal for a majority-EV fleet is not viable with current technology. The material requirements for batteries and components are so vast that a US-only transition would consume every scrap of lithium, copper, graphite, and other key minerals produced globally, leaving none for any other country or industry.

The most significant long-term threat to the supply of critical materials isn't a lack of resources in the ground, but a lack of people. The aging workforce of geologists and mining engineers, with a shrinking pipeline of new talent, poses a greater systemic risk to the industry.

The administration's explicit focus on re-shoring manufacturing and preparing for potential geopolitical conflict provides a clear investment playbook. Capital should flow towards commodities and companies critical to the military-industrial complex, such as producers of copper, steel, and rare earth metals.

Despite healthy global oil demand, J.P. Morgan maintains a bearish outlook because supply is forecast to expand at three times the rate of demand. This oversupply creates such a large market imbalance that prices must fall to enforce production cuts and rebalance the market.

The most effective shorts in cyclical industries aren't just a bet against the macro trend. The best opportunities arise when a commodity's price is already falling, and you can short a specific company whose weak management team is likely to execute poorly, creating a 'double whammy.'

Facing unprecedented government debt, a cycle of money printing and currency devaluation is likely. Investors should follow the lead of central banks, which are buying gold at record rates while holding fewer Treasury bonds, signaling a clear institutional strategy to own hard assets.

J.P. Morgan's bullish gold forecast isn't just about investor flight to safety. It's underpinned by inelastic mine supply failing to meet structurally higher demand from central banks, who can buy fewer tons at higher prices to maintain reserve targets, creating a strong floor for the market.

While headlines focus on advanced chips, China’s real leverage comes from its strategic control over less glamorous but essential upstream inputs like rare earths and magnets. It has even banned the export of magnet-making technology, creating critical, hard-to-solve bottlenecks for Western manufacturing.

For 50 years, commodity prices moved together, driven by synchronized global demand. J.P. Morgan identifies a breakdown of this trend since 2024, dubbing it the 'crocodile cycle,' where supply-side factors cause metals to outperform while energy underperforms, creating a widening gap like a crocodile's mouth.