Most turnarounds fail. Instead of investing on the announcement, wait 12-24 months for early evidence in leading KPIs before they hit the bottom line. This improves your odds, as turnarounds that start working rarely revert. The probability gain is worth more than the initial upside you miss.

The $2.5B acquisition of Manus exemplifies a "local maximum" exit. While VCs might push for a higher valuation later, the founders rationally chose to sell. This decision optimizes their personal, undiversified financial outcome by de-risking against future competition and market shifts.

The optimal exit point for a discretionary trade isn't determined by valuation metrics, but by market psychology. The signal is when investors betting against the trend are experiencing maximum financial and emotional pain, an intuitive skill that cannot be codified into a system.

To avoid emotional, performance-chasing mistakes, write down your selling criteria in advance and intentionally exclude recent performance from the list. This forces a focus on more rational reasons, such as a broken investment thesis, manager changes, excessive fees, or shifting personal goals, thereby preventing reactionary decisions based on market noise.

Founders who try to perfectly time an exit with market conditions are twice as likely to have second thoughts and report less satisfaction. The most fulfilled founders are those who sell when they are personally ready, regardless of market timing.

To manage the risk of volatile or 'bubble' stocks, investors should systematically take profits until their original cost basis is recovered. After this point, any remaining shares represent 'house money.' This simple mechanical rule removes emotion and protects principal while allowing for continued upside exposure.

True investment maturity isn't about holding through drawdowns. It's about recognizing when new information invalidates your thesis and selling immediately. The common instinct to defend a position by buying more is a costly mistake that turns event-driven plays into distressed holdings.

The activist purchased a large, illiquid 20% stake from a motivated seller at a 25% discount to the last traded price. This price itself was far below tangible book value. This 'discount on a discount' front-loads returns and builds in a significant margin of safety before any operational improvements are made.

After discovering that buyers of their portfolio companies were achieving 3x returns, TA shifted its strategy. Instead of selling 100%, they now often sell partial stakes. This provides liquidity to LPs and de-risks the investment while allowing TA to capture significant upside from the company's continued compounding growth.