Most turnarounds fail. Instead of investing on the announcement, wait 12-24 months for early evidence in leading KPIs before they hit the bottom line. This improves your odds, as turnarounds that start working rarely revert. The probability gain is worth more than the initial upside you miss.
Many late-stage investors focus heavily on data and metrics, forgetting that the quality of the leadership team remains as critical as in the seed stage. A new CEO, for example, can completely pivot a large company and reignite growth, a factor that quantitative analysis often misses.
Permira's co-CEO highlights a critical challenge in industries with long feedback loops, like private equity: the temptation to prematurely kill initiatives that appear to be failing. The key leadership skill is discerning if a strategy is flawed or simply needs more time to compound.
In a turnaround, a leader's most critical first step is restructuring their direct reports. McLaren's CEO replaced every key leader—CFO, HR, commercial, etc.—to create a unified group that could then drive cultural change down through their own departments.
An investor's best career P&L winners are not immediate yeses. They often involve an initial pass by either the investor or the company. This shows that timing and building relationships over multiple rounds can be more crucial than a single early-stage decision, as a 'missed round' isn't a 'missed company'.
Implementing changes introduces disruption and retraining, causing a predictable short-term performance decline of around 20%. This 'cost of change' means leaders should reject incremental improvements and only pursue initiatives with a potential upside that vastly outweighs this guaranteed initial loss.
When evaluating investments, Danny Meyer prioritizes leadership quality over the initial concept. He believes a strong leader can pivot and improve a mediocre idea, whereas even a brilliant concept is doomed to fail under poor leadership. This highlights the primacy of execution over ideation for investors.
A common mistake in venture capital is investing too early based on founder pedigree or gut feel, which is akin to 'shooting in the dark'. A more disciplined private equity approach waits for companies to establish repeatable, business-driven key performance metrics before committing capital, reducing portfolio variance.
According to Dan Sundheim, European markets exhibit a significant lag in pricing successful corporate turnarounds compared to the U.S. This "voting machine" is slower, as investors who have been burned by a company's historical underperformance remain skeptical long after a new strategy shows clear signs of working.
Instead of an immediate post-close review, conduct retrospectives 6-12 months later. The true quality of due diligence and strategic fit can only be assessed after operating the business for a period. This delay provides deeper insights into what was missed or correctly identified, leading to more meaningful process improvements.
While many investors screen for companies with high Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), a more powerful indicator is the trajectory of ROIC. A company improving from a 4% to 8% ROIC is often a better investment than one stagnant at 12%, as there is a direct correlation between rising ROIC and stock performance.