Reframe hedging not as pure defense, but as an offensive tool. A proper hedge produces a cash windfall during a downturn, providing the capital and psychological confidence to buy assets at a discount when others are panic-selling.
The optimal exit point for a discretionary trade isn't determined by valuation metrics, but by market psychology. The signal is when investors betting against the trend are experiencing maximum financial and emotional pain, an intuitive skill that cannot be codified into a system.
The act of consistently publishing ideas, such as in a weekly newsletter, imposes a discipline that rewires your brain. It forces you to organize complex thoughts, articulate them clearly, and ultimately improves your entire decision-making process in investing, business, and life.
Unlike past crises like 2008, the coming debt sustainability crisis will be different because the government's own balance sheet is the source of the instability. This means it will lack the capacity to bail out the market in the same way, fundamentally changing the nature of the crisis.
Global governments are actively pursuing policies (running economies hot, suppressing energy costs, managing rates down) to create a period of artificial prosperity. This is a deliberate strategy to push a massive debt sustainability crisis further into the future, which will feel great until it doesn't.
In a de-dollarizing, low-trust geopolitical landscape, Bitcoin's core value isn't as a currency but as a digitally native, government-proof form of collateral. Unlike gold or treasuries, it's instantly transferable and cannot be confiscated by a hostile sovereign power, making it a superior neutral asset.
A portfolio's performance can be dramatically enhanced by combining traditionally separate strategies. A leveraged mix of equities (S&P), hedges (long volatility), and trend-following strategies can produce returns that are multiples higher (e.g., 40x) than equities alone (e.g., 6-7x) over the same period.