The $2.5B acquisition of Manus exemplifies a "local maximum" exit. While VCs might push for a higher valuation later, the founders rationally chose to sell. This decision optimizes their personal, undiversified financial outcome by de-risking against future competition and market shifts.
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Don't wait until you're completely exhausted to sell your company, as buyers will sense your desperation and gain the advantage. The ideal time to exit is when your passion for the market wanes or growth slows, allowing you to negotiate from a position of strength before burnout sets in.
Taking a small amount of money off the table via a secondary sale de-risks a founder's personal finances. This financial security empowers them to reject large acquisition offers and pursue a long-term, independent vision without the pressure of life-changing personal wealth decisions.
Founders who try to perfectly time an exit with market conditions are twice as likely to have second thoughts and report less satisfaction. The most fulfilled founders are those who sell when they are personally ready, regardless of market timing.
The most lucrative exit for a startup is often not an IPO, but an M&A deal within an oligopolistic industry. When 3-4 major players exist, they can be forced into an irrational bidding war driven by the fear of a competitor acquiring the asset, leading to outcomes that are even better than going public.
When a company like Synthesia gets a $3B offer, founder and VC incentives decouple. For a founder with 10% equity, the lifestyle difference between a $300M exit and a potential $1B future exit is minimal. For a VC, that same 3.3x growth can mean the difference between a decent and a great fund return, making them far more willing to gamble.
An exit that provides a significant financial win but isn't enough to retire on can be a powerful motivator. It acts as a 'proof point' that validates the founder's ability while leaving them hungry for a much larger outcome, making them more driven than founders who are either pre-success or have achieved a life-changing exit.
HubSpot's co-founders were driven by the goal of becoming the biggest tech company in Boston, not the world. While VC Marc Andreessen views this "local maximum" thinking as a flaw, for HubSpot it provided a powerful, tangible anchor that fueled their long-term focus and prevented them from selling early.
When founders receive life-altering offers (e.g., billions of dollars), the long-term reputational game of venture capital collapses into a single-turn, "one and done" decision. This game theory shift incentivizes taking the immediate payout, overriding loyalty.
Even with strong revenue growth, founders should seriously consider M&A offers if their Total Addressable Market (TAM) isn't expanding at a faster rate. A stagnant TAM indicates a future ceiling on value creation, and selling may be the optimal outcome before hitting that wall.
Two founders rejected a $20M acquisition offer they felt was too low. After successfully pivoting their business during the pandemic, they returned to the same buyer and received a doubled offer of $40M with better terms. This shows how patience and focusing on business performance can dramatically improve an exit outcome.
