Investors err when they size a new market based on its predecessor (e.g., Uber vs. taxis). A fundamental supply-side change creates new capabilities that unlock massive, previously invisible demand, making initial market size calculations dangerously conservative.
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A16Z's investment thesis posits that platform shifts (e.g., on-prem to cloud) create companies 10x larger than the incumbents they replace. They applied this logic to Databricks (vs. Oracle) and Substack (vs. traditional media), arguing against conservative market sizing.
A 'dam' represents pent-up demand where users are frustrated and merely 'coping' with the status quo. Introducing a 10x better solution, often via new tech, doesn't create demand; it bursts the dam, releasing a flood of customers who see it as a magical fix for a problem they already have.
During a fundamental technology shift like the current AI wave, traditional market size analysis is pointless because new markets and behaviors are being created. Investors should de-emphasize TAM and instead bet on founders who have a clear, convicted vision for how the world will change.
The conversation around Ideal Customer Profile (ICP) has evolved beyond simple refinement. With newly accessible data, companies are fundamentally re-evaluating their Total Addressable Market (TAM), challenging long-held assumptions about who their potential customers are and how big the opportunity is.
Successful AI products like Gamma and Cursor don't just add a feature; they create so much value they can charge orders of magnitude more than legacy alternatives. This massive Total Addressable Market (TAM) expansion, not a simple price bump, is the engine of their explosive growth.
The true market opportunity for AI is not merely replacing existing software but automating human labor. This reframes the total addressable market (TAM) from the ~$400 billion global software industry to the $13 trillion US-only labor market, representing a thirty-fold increase in potential value.
VCs in 2008 rejected Shopify because the existing market of 40,000 online stores was too small. They failed to see that Shopify wasn't just serving a market; its friction-reducing product would create a much larger one.
Companies like Amazon (from books to cloud) and Intuitive Surgical (from one specific surgery to many) became massive winners by creating new markets, not just conquering existing ones. Investors should prioritize businesses with the innovative capacity to expand their TAM, as initial market sizes are often misleadingly small.
When evaluating revolutionary ideas, traditional Total Addressable Market (TAM) analysis is useless. VCs should instead bet on founders with a "world-bending vision" capable of inducing a new market, not just capturing an existing one. Have the humility to admit you can't predict market size and instead back the visionary founder.
Elad Gil argues that the total addressable market for AI companies is not limited to traditional seat-based software pricing. Instead, it encompasses the multi-trillion dollar human labor market that AI can augment or automate.
