The conversation around Ideal Customer Profile (ICP) has evolved beyond simple refinement. With newly accessible data, companies are fundamentally re-evaluating their Total Addressable Market (TAM), challenging long-held assumptions about who their potential customers are and how big the opportunity is.
The slow growth of public SaaS isn't just an execution failure; it's a structural problem. We created so many VC-backed companies that markets became saturated, blocking adjacent expansion opportunities and creating a 'Total Addressable Market (TAM) trap'.
Initial data suggested the market for design tools was too small to build a large business. Figma's founders bet on the trend that design was becoming a key business differentiator, which would force the market to expand. They focused on building for the trend, not the existing TAM.
Founders in deep tech and space are moving beyond traditional TAM analysis. They justify high valuations by pitching narratives of creating entirely new markets, like interplanetary humanity or space-based data centers. This shifts the conversation from 'what is the market?' to 'what could the market become?'.
Executive teams often create an ICP based on a 'wishlist' of big logos. The most accurate ICP is actually found by analyzing your first-party CRM data. Examining patterns across both close-won and close-lost deals reveals surprising truths about which customer segments are actually the best fit for your solution.
Many founders operate on flawed assumptions about how they acquire customers. Analyzing marketing data often shatters these myths, revealing that sales and traffic come from unexpected sources. This discovery points to untapped growth opportunities and where marketing energy is best spent.
Ditch the aspirational "Ideal Client Profile," which represents a rare, perfect-world scenario. Instead, build a "Target Client Profile" that defines which customers will perceive the most meaningful value from your offering. This provides a realistic, operational benchmark for qualifying leads.
Modern marketing relevance requires moving beyond traditional demographic segments. The focus should be on real-time signals of customer intent, like clicks and searches. This reframes the customer from a static identity to a dynamic one, enabling more timely and relevant engagement.
For venture capitalists investing in AI, the primary success indicator is massive Total Addressable Market (TAM) expansion. Traditional concerns like entry price become secondary when a company is fundamentally redefining its market size. Without this expansion, the investment is not worthwhile in the current AI landscape.
When evaluating revolutionary ideas, traditional Total Addressable Market (TAM) analysis is useless. VCs should instead bet on founders with a "world-bending vision" capable of inducing a new market, not just capturing an existing one. Have the humility to admit you can't predict market size and instead back the visionary founder.
When growth flattens, data companies must expand their value proposition. This involves three key strategies: finding new end markets, solving the next step in the customer's workflow (e.g., location selection), and acquiring tangential datasets to create a more complete solution.