The true market opportunity for AI is not merely replacing existing software but automating human labor. This reframes the total addressable market (TAM) from the ~$400 billion global software industry to the $13 trillion US-only labor market, representing a thirty-fold increase in potential value.
The new generation of AI automates workflows, acting as "teammates" for employees. This creates entirely new, greenfield markets focused on productivity gains for every individual, representing a TAM potentially 10x larger than the previous SaaS era, which focused on replacing existing systems of record.
The primary economic incentive driving AI development is not replacing software, but automating the vastly larger human labor market. This includes high-skill jobs like accountants, lawyers, and auditors, representing a multi-trillion dollar opportunity that dwarfs the SaaS industry and dictates where investment will flow.
Companies like Sierra can't justify a 100x ARR valuation by targeting the existing software market (e.g., $8B Service Cloud). The bet is that they will capture a significant portion of the much larger human labor market ($200B+ for support agents). This represents a fundamental transition of spend from human capital to software.
The massive TAM expansion for AI relies on shifting spend from labor to technology budgets. This shift won't happen because of top-down CIO mandates. It must be driven by bottom-up product pull, where the value proposition is so overwhelmingly clear that customers are compelled to adopt it.
The economic incentive for VCs funding AI is replacing human labor, a $13 trillion market in the US alone. This dwarfs the $300 billion SaaS market, revealing the ultimate goal is automating knowledge work, not just building software.
In the current market, AI companies see explosive growth through two primary vectors: attaching to the massive AI compute spend or directly replacing human labor. Companies merely using AI to improve an existing product without hitting one of these drivers risk being discounted as they lack a clear, exponential growth narrative.
Traditional software automated standardized processes but struggled with complex human interactions like call center support. Generative AI's ability to understand natural language allows software to automate these nuanced tasks, dramatically expanding the total addressable market by tackling problems that were previously impossible to solve with code.
The new AI technology landscape is a layered 'Collaborative Intelligence Stack.' It starts with hardware and models but culminates in 'AI teammates'—agentic AIs that augment human workers. The largest future value lies in this top layer, which could capture 10-20% of the $30 trillion global knowledge worker spend.
Elad Gil argues that the total addressable market for AI companies is not limited to traditional seat-based software pricing. Instead, it encompasses the multi-trillion dollar human labor market that AI can augment or automate.
Unlike traditional software that supports workflows, AI can execute them. This shifts the value proposition from optimizing IT budgets to replacing entire labor functions, massively expanding the total addressable market for software companies.