While AI infrastructure gets the attention, a quiet industrial revival is underway. The combination of fiscal incentives, manufacturing reshoring, and better financing conditions could soon reactivate stocks in logistics, HVAC, and transport that have been in an 'ISM recession' for years.
Bringing manufacturing back to the US won't mean a return of old assembly line jobs. The real opportunity is to leapfrog to automated factories that produce sophisticated, tech-infused products. This creates a new class of higher-skill, higher-pay "blue collar plus" jobs focused on building and maintaining these advanced manufacturing systems.
Instead of selling software to traditional industries, a more defensible approach is to build vertically integrated companies. This involves acquiring or starting a business in a non-sexy industry (e.g., a law firm, hospital) and rebuilding its entire operational stack with AI at its core, something a pure software vendor cannot do.
The sectors within the "American Dynamism" thesis—defense, energy, space, manufacturing—are not siloed but form an interdependent system. Strong national security requires a resilient energy grid and space-based communications, which in turn depend on domestic manufacturing and critical minerals. This holistic view is crucial for both investors and policymakers.
After a decade of abundant "growth capex" building new infrastructure, the economic pendulum is swinging towards "maintenance capex." This creates a massive, overlooked opportunity for technologies that service existing assets, like predictive software, acoustic sensors, and remote repair robots.
Before AI delivers long-term deflationary productivity, it requires a massive, inflationary build-out of physical infrastructure. This makes sectors like utilities, pipelines, and energy infrastructure a timely hedge against inflation and a diversifier away from concentrated tech bets.
The national initiative to reshore manufacturing faces a critical human capital problem: a shortage of skilled tradespeople like electricians and plumbers. The decline of vocational training in high schools (e.g., "shop class") has created a talent gap that must be addressed to build and run new factories.
Due to its deep integration with the US economy, Mexico has developed a massive industrial base. If Mexico were located elsewhere and had more diversified trade relationships, it would be globally recognized as a major industrial power, rivaling European giants like Germany and France.
Instead of creating a tech sector from scratch, the most effective path is to identify and invest in tech niches adjacent to a city's existing industries (e.g., Energy Tech for an oil town). This leverages existing talent, infrastructure, and supply chains, making the transition more natural and sustainable.
While the West may lead in AI models, China's key strategic advantage is its ability to 'embody' AI in hardware. Decades of de-industrialization in the U.S. have left a gap, while China's manufacturing dominance allows it to integrate AI into cars, drones, and robots at a scale the West cannot currently match.
Instead of merely reacting to supply chain disruptions, AI allows companies to become proactive. It can model scenarios involving labor shortages, tariffs, and weather to reroute shipments and adjust inventory promises on websites in real-time, moving from crisis management to strategic orchestration.