Creating a basic AI coding tool is easy. The defensible moat comes from building a vertically integrated platform with its own backend infrastructure like databases, user management, and integrations. This is extremely difficult for competitors to replicate, especially if they rely on third-party services like Superbase.
Unlike the cloud market with high switching costs, LLM workloads can be moved between providers with a single line of code. This creates insane market dynamics where millions in spend can shift overnight based on model performance or cost, posing a huge risk to the LLM providers themselves.
An emerging AI growth strategy involves using expensive frontier models to acquire users and distribution at an explosive rate, accepting poor initial margins. Once critical mass is reached, the company introduces its own fine-tuned, cheaper model, drastically improving unit economics overnight and capitalizing on the established user base.
Conventional venture capital wisdom of 'winner-take-all' may not apply to AI applications. The market is expanding so rapidly that it can sustain multiple, fast-growing, highly valuable companies, each capturing a significant niche. For VCs, this means huge returns don't necessarily require backing a monopoly.
AI companies operate under the assumption that LLM prices will trend towards zero. This strategic bet means they intentionally de-prioritize heavy investment in cost optimization today, focusing instead on capturing the market and building features, confident that future, cheaper models will solve their margin problems for them.
In the future, it will be easier for businesses to build their own custom software (e.g., Salesforce) through prompting than to buy and configure an off-the-shelf solution. This shift towards "liquid software" will fundamentally challenge the one-size-fits-all SaaS model, especially for companies that currently rely on implementation partners.
Non-technical founders using AI tools must unlearn traditional project planning. The key is rapid iteration: building a first version you know you will discard. This mindset leverages the AI's speed, making it emotionally easier to pivot and refine ideas without the sunk cost fallacy of wasting developer time.
Instead of selling software to traditional industries, a more defensible approach is to build vertically integrated companies. This involves acquiring or starting a business in a non-sexy industry (e.g., a law firm, hospital) and rebuilding its entire operational stack with AI at its core, something a pure software vendor cannot do.
A key metric for AI coding agent performance is real-time sentiment analysis of user prompts. By measuring whether users say 'fantastic job' or 'this is not what I wanted,' teams get an immediate signal of the agent's comprehension and effectiveness, which is more telling than lagging indicators like bug counts.