The dynamic between tech and government is not a simple decline but a cycle of alignment (post-WWII), hostility (2000s-2010s), and a recent return to collaboration. This "back to the future" trend is driven by geopolitical needs and cultural shifts, suggesting the current alignment is a return to a historical norm.
The sectors within the "American Dynamism" thesis—defense, energy, space, manufacturing—are not siloed but form an interdependent system. Strong national security requires a resilient energy grid and space-based communications, which in turn depend on domestic manufacturing and critical minerals. This holistic view is crucial for both investors and policymakers.
The cultural shift in Silicon Valley away from national interest work was shaped by cultural touchstones. The film "The Social Network" symbolized a generation of founders inspired by dorm-room consumer apps, a stark contrast to the previous "Bob Noyce" generation focused on building the physical world and supporting national missions.
The next wave of space companies is moving away from the vertically integrated "SpaceX model" where everything is built in-house. Instead, a new ecosystem is emerging where companies specialize in specific parts of the stack, such as satellite buses or ground stations. This unbundling creates efficiency and lowers barriers to entry for new players.
Bringing manufacturing back to the US won't mean a return of old assembly line jobs. The real opportunity is to leapfrog to automated factories that produce sophisticated, tech-infused products. This creates a new class of higher-skill, higher-pay "blue collar plus" jobs focused on building and maintaining these advanced manufacturing systems.
The conflict in Ukraine exposed the vulnerability of expensive, "exquisite" military platforms (like tanks) to inexpensive technologies (like drones). This has shifted defense priorities toward cheap, mass-producible, "attritable" systems. This fundamental change in product and economics creates a massive opportunity for startups to innovate outside the traditional defense prime model.
Successful "American Dynamism" companies de-risk hardware development by initially using off-the-shelf commodity components. Their unique value comes from pairing this accessible hardware with sophisticated, proprietary software for AI, computer vision, and autonomy. This approach lowers capital intensity and accelerates time-to-market compared to traditional hardware manufacturing.
The ubiquitous corporate "five-year plan" is not a benign business tool; its conceptual creator was Joseph Stalin for managing the Soviet Union. This framework is fundamentally ill-suited for a dynamic, capitalist environment, routinely failing because its iteration cycle is too slow. The persistence of this model represents a "hand coming out of the grave" of central planning.
Unlike traditional tech, founders in the American Dynamism space often succeed because of their deep, first-hand understanding of the customer (e.g., government, military). Many have prior service, hold security clearances, or have sold to government before. This "customer intimacy" allows them to speak the language and navigate complex procurement, a crucial advantage.