State-level unemployment insurance data, available during the government shutdown, shows a distinct trend. Initial claims are low (companies aren't laying people off), but continuing claims are elevated (it's hard for the unemployed to find new jobs), confirming a stagnant labor market.

The combination of solid GDP growth and weaker job creation is not necessarily a warning sign, but a structural shift. With productivity growth rebounding to its 2% historical average and labor supply constrained by lower immigration, the economy can grow robustly without adding as many jobs as in the past.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that after accounting for statistical anomalies, "job creation is pretty close to zero." He directly attributes this to CEOs confirming that AI allows them to operate with fewer people, marking a major official acknowledgment of AI's deflationary effect on the labor market.

An analysis of ADP payroll data shows job growth is concentrated entirely in large companies (over 250 employees), while smaller firms are consistently shedding jobs. This divergence is attributed to smaller businesses' inability to absorb tariff costs or reshuffle supply chains, unlike their larger, more resilient counterparts.

ADP data reveals a stark divergence in the labor market. In November, companies with fewer than 50 employees lost 120,000 jobs. This indicates smaller firms are struggling disproportionately with tariffs and labor issues, while larger firms continue to add to their payrolls.

While historical ADP charts seem to track official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, this is misleading. In the moment, ADP's estimates are often inaccurate. The firm revises its historical data months later to align with the official BLS numbers, creating an illusion of real-time accuracy.

Mastercard's Chief Economist argues the labor market is in balance, not collapsing. A slowdown from 175k to ~70k jobs/month is a necessary correction from an unsustainable, post-pandemic surge. With both labor demand (hiring) and supply decreasing, key metrics like the unemployment rate remain stable, indicating equilibrium rather than decline.

Revealio Labs scrapes 105M US professional profiles, primarily from LinkedIn. To correct for biases (e.g., overrepresentation of tech workers), they reweight the data using BLS industry and occupation statistics. A Bayesian model then adjusts for the typical 3-month lag in users updating their job status, enabling a real-time 'nowcast'.

While large-cap tech props up the market, ADP employment data shows the small business sector has experienced negative job growth in six of the last seven months. This deep divergence highlights a "K-shaped" economy where monetary policy benefits large corporations at the expense of Main Street.