During government data blackouts, economists can approximate the official BLS payroll survey with high accuracy. An average of private payroll data from ADP and Revealio Labs has shown a 95% correlation with the government's numbers over the past five years, suggesting underlying job growth is near zero.
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Despite providing real-time labor market data, firms like Revealio Labs depend on foundational government statistics to reweight their datasets for accuracy. This calibration process is only needed about once a year, allowing their models to function for a considerable time during government data blackouts without significant degradation.
State-level unemployment insurance data, available during the government shutdown, shows a distinct trend. Initial claims are low (companies aren't laying people off), but continuing claims are elevated (it's hard for the unemployed to find new jobs), confirming a stagnant labor market.
Private firms like ADP have business incentives that may conflict with the public's need for consistent economic data. ADP's recent decision to stop providing weekly data to the Fed during a government shutdown highlights this tension and the irreplaceability of official government statistics.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that after accounting for statistical anomalies, "job creation is pretty close to zero." He directly attributes this to CEOs confirming that AI allows them to operate with fewer people, marking a major official acknowledgment of AI's deflationary effect on the labor market.
While historical ADP charts seem to track official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, this is misleading. In the moment, ADP's estimates are often inaccurate. The firm revises its historical data months later to align with the official BLS numbers, creating an illusion of real-time accuracy.
Mastercard's Chief Economist argues the labor market is in balance, not collapsing. A slowdown from 175k to ~70k jobs/month is a necessary correction from an unsustainable, post-pandemic surge. With both labor demand (hiring) and supply decreasing, key metrics like the unemployment rate remain stable, indicating equilibrium rather than decline.
Revealio Labs scrapes 105M US professional profiles, primarily from LinkedIn. To correct for biases (e.g., overrepresentation of tech workers), they reweight the data using BLS industry and occupation statistics. A Bayesian model then adjusts for the typical 3-month lag in users updating their job status, enabling a real-time 'nowcast'.
The government's failure to release key economic reports (jobs, GDP, inflation) creates a dangerous information vacuum, forcing the Fed and businesses to operate without instruments. This void presents a significant business opportunity for private companies to develop and sell alternative economic data streams and forecasting models to fill the gap.
The Federal Reserve is not 'flying blind' during government shutdowns that halt official statistics. It uses a composite of alternative indicators for the labor market and inflation, providing enough of a signal to stick to its pre-planned policy path, such as proceeding with scheduled interest rate cuts.
While large-cap tech props up the market, ADP employment data shows the small business sector has experienced negative job growth in six of the last seven months. This deep divergence highlights a "K-shaped" economy where monetary policy benefits large corporations at the expense of Main Street.
