Widespread suffering alone doesn't trigger a revolution. Historically, successful uprisings require a politically savvy, well-organized group with a clear agenda and influential leadership. Disparate and unorganized populations, no matter how desperate, tend to see their energy dissipate without causing systemic change.

Historical data since World War II shows that when authoritarian regimes fall, they lead to a stable democracy only about 20% of the time. The most common outcome—in over 80% of cases—is the replacement of one authoritarian system with another, a sobering statistic for post-regime change planning in countries like Iran.

Computational studies reveal that simply mobilizing large crowds is the least likely strategy to succeed. A more effective approach, an "informed pillar strategy," involves identifying and targeting the opponent's wavering pillars of support (like business or security elites) to create a cascade of defections.

Citing Gandhi and the Civil Rights Movement, the most successful long-term protest strategies rely on peaceful non-resistance. Active resistance, even when justified, often escalates violence and cedes the moral high ground, making it a less effective tool for systemic change compared to disciplined, peaceful protest.

Dictatorships can tolerate individual criticism but actively suppress mechanisms that create common knowledge, like public assemblies or organized online groups. They understand that power rests on preventing citizens from realizing that their grievances are shared. Once dissent becomes common knowledge, coordinated revolt is possible, which no regime can withstand.

It doesn't take a majority of a population to enact significant political change; a small but sufficiently fervent and motivated minority can be incredibly effective. Their passion and commitment can outweigh the apathy of the larger population, similar to the low engagement rates in modern political parties.

Despite widespread discontent, the Iranian opposition is leaderless, disorganized, and lacks a clear plan for seizing power. A successful revolution would require external military support to neutralize the regime's security forces, such as the Basij militia, and guide the effort.

Research synthesizes four crucial elements for successful movements: 1) large, diverse, and growing participation; 2) securing defections from the opponent's key supporters (e.g., business or security elites); 3) tactical flexibility, shifting between protest, non-cooperation, and building alternative institutions; and 4) maintaining nonviolent discipline, even under repression.

Jane Fonda distinguishes the strategic value of protests. While vital for pressuring receptive governments, under an unreceptive or authoritarian regime, their primary function shifts. Protests then serve to build solidarity and morale ("flossing the movement") rather than directly influencing policy.