Widespread suffering alone doesn't trigger a revolution. Historically, successful uprisings require a politically savvy, well-organized group with a clear agenda and influential leadership. Disparate and unorganized populations, no matter how desperate, tend to see their energy dissipate without causing systemic change.
Rising calls for socialist policies are not just about wealth disparity, but symptoms of three core failures: unaffordable housing, fear of healthcare-driven bankruptcy, and an education system misaligned with job outcomes. Solving these fundamental problems would alleviate the pressure for radical wealth redistribution far more effectively.
The appeal of a populist leader lies in their rejection of traditional political norms. When the electorate feels betrayed by the established "political class," they gravitate toward figures whose rhetoric is a deliberate and stark contrast, signaling they are an outsider.
When a political movement is out of power, it's easy to unify against a common opponent. Once they gain power and become the establishment, internal disagreements surface, leading to factions and infighting as they debate the group's future direction.
Major political realignments are not always triggered by specific crimes but by a pervasive 'vibe' of elite entitlement and impunity. Revelations that expose a culture of being above the law can act as a societal 'let them eat cake moment,' sparking a revolutionary shift in public sentiment and policy priorities.
Populist figures don't create societal problems; they rise to power because existing economic and social issues create an environment where their message resonates. To solve the problem, you must address the underlying conditions, not just the leader who represents them.
Historically, countries crossing a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio experience revolution or collapse. As the U.S. approaches this threshold (currently 122%), its massive debt forces zero-sum political fights over a shrinking pie, directly fueling the social unrest and polarization seen today.
Historically, what tears societies apart is not economic depression itself but runaway wealth inequality. A major bubble bursting would dramatically widen the gap between asset holders and everyone else, fueling the populist anger and political violence that directly leads to civil unrest.
Historian Anne Applebaum observes that significant US constitutional amendments often follow profound national traumas like the Revolution or the Civil War. This suggests that without a similar large-scale crisis, mustering the collective will to address deep-seated issues like systemic corruption is historically difficult, as there is no single moment of reckoning.
Humans can endure immense suffering, misery, and ugliness, but find boredom intolerable. This powerful aversion is an underestimated catalyst for major historical events, social movements, and even revolutions, as people seek excitement and a sense of purpose over monotony.
Figures like Donald Trump don't create populist movements; they rise by capitalizing on pre-existing societal problems like economic despair. Focusing on removing the leader ignores the root causes that allowed them to gain power, ensuring another similar figure will eventually emerge.