Historical analysis of successful boycotts shows they share two traits: they are narrow in focus and easy for participants to execute. A broad campaign like 'Resist and Unsubscribe' is less effective than a highly targeted action, such as advocating for everyone to cancel a single, specific service like ChatGPT.
Contrary to the typical anti-war sentiment in the West, anecdotal evidence suggests that an overwhelming majority of Iranians who oppose the regime—perhaps 80% or more—would welcome outside help. They feel abandoned after the US promised support for protesters, making them receptive to foreign intervention.
The US military buildup against Iran is interpreted not as an inevitable prelude to war, but as a high-stakes 'game of chicken.' The primary goal for President Trump is likely to exert maximum pressure to force Iran into a diplomatic deal with major concessions, making war a secondary, less preferable option.
While a ground invasion is unlikely, a potential US military strategy involves a direct assassination attempt on Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. This high-risk decapitation strike aims to destabilize the regime's core, but the effect on the cohesion of its security forces is completely unpredictable.
Scott Galloway found that organizing the 'Resist and Unsubscribe' campaign served a personal purpose: action absorbs anxiety. Moving from passive outrage to active participation, even if online, provided a sense of agency and well-being in the face of political stress, footing his online indignation with real-world action.
For high-multiple tech companies like OpenAI, the financial impact of a single subscription cancellation is magnified. Due to its ~40x revenue multiple, one lost paid subscription to ChatGPT is estimated to reduce the company's enterprise value by approximately $10,000, illustrating the power of targeted consumer boycotts.
The 47-year rule of the Islamic Republic has had a paradoxical effect. The oppressive theocracy has led to a population that is now arguably the most secular in the Middle East and, despite its anti-American government, one of the most pro-American populations in the region, desperate to separate mosque and state.
Historical data since World War II shows that when authoritarian regimes fall, they lead to a stable democracy only about 20% of the time. The most common outcome—in over 80% of cases—is the replacement of one authoritarian system with another, a sobering statistic for post-regime change planning in countries like Iran.
Countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are ambivalent about US military action. Their primary fear is not a full-scale war, but a limited 'hit-and-run' strike where the US attacks and then diverts attention, leaving them 'naked and vulnerable' to Iranian retaliation without a long-term American security presence.
During the 'Resist and Unsubscribe' campaign, a single social media post from celebrity Chelsea Handler drove 6,000-7,000 site visits. In contrast, mentions from high-profile politicians like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rep. Adam Kinzinger resulted in no discernible traffic spike, highlighting the different nature of their influence.