When the South Korean president attempted a coup by declaring martial law, a powerful trade federation made a credible threat to bring the country to an "orderly standstill." This deterrent was so effective that the military hesitated, forcing the president to reverse the coup. The movement then successfully pushed for impeachment.
Contrary to cynicism that protests achieve little, research shows a strong correlation between mass participation and electoral outcomes. For example, high turnout in the 2017 Women's Marches had a powerful predictive effect on the diversity of candidates and the Democratic "blue wave" in the 2018 midterm elections.
Computational studies reveal that simply mobilizing large crowds is the least likely strategy to succeed. A more effective approach, an "informed pillar strategy," involves identifying and targeting the opponent's wavering pillars of support (like business or security elites) to create a cascade of defections.
In cases like South Africa, where security forces are unlikely to defect, the business and corporate elite become the linchpin for change. A combination of boycotts, strikes, and international divestment pressured the business class, which in turn pressured the pro-apartheid party to reform, leading to a democratic transition without a civil war.
External powers signaling potential intervention, as the U.S. did in Iran and others did regarding Syria, can create a dangerous "now or never" mentality among protestors. This moral hazard encourages riskier actions on the ground, but when the promised support never materializes, it's the local population that pays the ultimate price.
The rule, stating that no movement involving 3.5% of the population has failed, is a historical observation from 1900-2006, not a guarantee. There have been exceptions, like Bahrain's 2011 uprising, which mobilized 6% of the population but failed because the regime used foreign troops to suppress protests, preventing defections.
To become more than the sum of their parts, fragmented activist groups need an umbrella formation. Historical examples like South Africa's United Democratic Front and similar alliances in Chile and South Korea show how a coordinating body can give strategic shape and greater power to a broad-based democracy movement.
Research synthesizes four crucial elements for successful movements: 1) large, diverse, and growing participation; 2) securing defections from the opponent's key supporters (e.g., business or security elites); 3) tactical flexibility, shifting between protest, non-cooperation, and building alternative institutions; and 4) maintaining nonviolent discipline, even under repression.