In fragmented service industries, experienced operators can accurately estimate a target's revenue using non-financial metrics. Knowing the revenue a single pool service truck generates allows for a quick and reliable valuation simply by counting the trucks pictured on the company's website.
To overcome accounting's focus on historical costs, quantitative investors use unstructured data from sources like patent filings, trademarks, and LinkedIn profiles. This approach quantifies the actual output and quality of a company's intellectual property and human capital.
Investors and acquirers pay premiums for predictable revenue, which comes from retaining and upselling existing customers. This "expansion revenue" is a far greater value multiplier than simply acquiring new customers, a metric most founders wrongly prioritize.
Don't just ask customers about their business—independently verify it. When launching Uber Eats, the team couldn't get clear answers on restaurant economics. So they ordered food, weighed the ingredients, and built their own model, giving them the "ground truth" needed to confidently propose their pricing structure.
To set your price, ask clients what they would do if your service didn't exist. Their answer, like hiring a full-time employee, reveals the 'replacement value.' This figure provides a concrete benchmark for your pricing and uncovers powerful marketing language.
Buyers pay a premium for predictable income, not just high revenue. Even non-SaaS businesses, like a home builder, can create valuable "durable revenue" by adding contract-based services like lawn care, significantly increasing enterprise value.
Many PE firms use backward-looking commercial due diligence, which is superficial and fails to assess a target's true growth potential. A more effective approach is go-to-market focused due diligence that evaluates the scalability of the future revenue engine, not just past performance.
Vested sources a differentiated data set by analyzing private company performance through state and local tax and labor filings. While the absolute numbers are often inaccurate for any given company, they are consistently inaccurate. Therefore, the trend line provides a reliable and valuable signal for a company's growth or decline.
To see if an offer is scalable, factor in your own labor as a direct cost. Ask, "What would I have to pay someone to do this work?" Including this "founder salary" in your unit economics reveals the real profit margin and whether you can afford to hire help to grow.
Unlike industrial firms, digital marketplaces like Uber have immense operational leverage. Once the initial infrastructure is built, incremental revenue flows directly to the bottom line with minimal additional cost. The market can be slow to recognize this, creating investment opportunities in seemingly expensive stocks.
Beyond typical due diligence, a company's true defensibility can be measured with a simple thought experiment: if the business disappeared overnight, how severe would the impact be on its customers? A high level of disruption indicates a strong, defensible business model.