Julie Zhu observes that many of the fastest-growing companies grow so quickly they don't have time to build robust data logging and observability. They succeed on "good instincts and good vibes," only investing heavily in data infrastructure after growth eventually stalls.

Vested's investment model gains an edge from proprietary data on employee sentiment and behavior. Signals like unsolicited negative comments, willingness to counter on price, or selling more shares than necessary provide unique insights into a company's health that traditional financial analysis lacks, forming a data moat.

Acknowledging venture capital's power-law returns makes winner-picking nearly impossible. Vested's quantitative model doesn't try. Instead, it identifies the top quintile of all startups to create a high-potential "pond." The strategy is then to achieve broad diversification within this pre-qualified group, ensuring they capture the eventual outliers.

Founders are consistently and universally wrong about their financial projections, particularly cash runway. AI tools can provide an objective, data-driven forecast based on trailing growth, correcting for inherent founder optimism and preventing critical miscalculations.

Vested's CEO, Dave Thornton, a finance veteran, realized the massive market need for startup equity guidance only after his own mistaken advice led his employee to a huge tax bill during an acquisition. This personal failure highlighted that even financially savvy individuals struggle with the complexity of stock options.

Startup valuation calculators are systematically biased towards optimism. Their datasets are built on companies that successfully secured funding, excluding the vast majority that did not. This means the resulting valuations reflect only the "winners," creating an inflated perception of worth.

Vested works directly with employees because startups find small, one-off secondary transactions burdensome due to legal fees and cap table complexity. However, this dynamic inverts at scale. Once Vested facilitates millions in transactions for a single company's stock, the startup has a strong incentive to partner on a formal liquidity program.

Beyond outright fraud, startups often misrepresent financial health in subtle ways. Common examples include classifying trial revenue as ARR or recognizing contracts that have "out for convenience" clauses. These gray-area distinctions can drastically inflate a company's perceived stability and mislead investors.

Founders can get objective performance feedback without waiting for a fundraising cycle. AI benchmarking tools can analyze routine documents like monthly investor updates or board packs, providing continuous, low-effort insight into how the company truly stacks up against the market.