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Gilly Shwed argues that VCs misallocate energy at the seed stage. They spend too many calories evaluating hypothetical ideas and tech that will inevitably change. He contends the focus should be entirely on the founder's character and resilience, as the initial idea is just "noise."

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Extensive diligence on a seed-stage company's market or product is often wasted effort. The majority of successful seed investments pivot to a completely different business model, making the founding team's quality and resilience the most crucial factor to evaluate.

To win the best pre-seed deals, investors should engage high-potential talent during their 'founder curious' phase, long before a formal fundraise. The real competition is guiding them toward conviction on their own timeline, not battling other VCs for a term sheet later.

New VCs often rush to make deals to prove themselves, but this leads to a portfolio of mediocre companies. These investments consume a disproportionate amount of time and energy, leaving no bandwidth to pursue the truly exceptional, career-making opportunities that may appear later.

Casado argues that the market creates the company, not the other way around. He first determines if a market is viable and growing, and only then asks if the founder is the right fit for that specific market, reversing the common founder-first VC mantra.

A common mistake in venture capital is investing too early based on founder pedigree or gut feel, which is akin to 'shooting in the dark'. A more disciplined private equity approach waits for companies to establish repeatable, business-driven key performance metrics before committing capital, reducing portfolio variance.

An investor passed on Chime's seed round despite a strong founding team. The reason: he personally thought the product "makes no sense" and couldn't see himself building it. This illustrates a common early-stage trap where VCs substitute their own product ideas for the founder's vision, rather than betting on the team.

The hardest transition from entrepreneur to investor is curbing the instinct to solve problems and imagine "what could be." The best venture deals aren't about fixing a company but finding teams already on a trajectory to succeed, then helping change the slope of that success line on the margin.

A truly exceptional founder is a talent magnet who will relentlessly iterate until they find a winning model. Rejecting a partnership based on a weak initial idea is a mistake; the founder's talent is the real asset. They will likely pivot to a much bigger opportunity.

When evaluating revolutionary ideas, traditional Total Addressable Market (TAM) analysis is useless. VCs should instead bet on founders with a "world-bending vision" capable of inducing a new market, not just capturing an existing one. Have the humility to admit you can't predict market size and instead back the visionary founder.

Lonsdale recounts passing on brilliant founders with seemingly terrible ideas, only to watch them pivot and build billion-dollar companies like Cursor. The lesson for early-stage investors is to prioritize backing exceptional, world-class talent, even if their initial concept seems flawed, as they possess the ability to find a winning strategy.

The Early-Stage Venture Model Is Broken; VCs Waste Time Analyzing Ideas That Don't Exist | RiffOn