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  1. The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified
  2. Investor Stories 458: Anti Portfolio Lessons: Netflix by Mail, Palantir at the Wrong Price, and the Cost of Price Sensitivity (Madera, Bussgang, Orlovski)
Investor Stories 458: Anti Portfolio Lessons: Netflix by Mail, Palantir at the Wrong Price, and the Cost of Price Sensitivity (Madera, Bussgang, Orlovski)

Investor Stories 458: Anti Portfolio Lessons: Netflix by Mail, Palantir at the Wrong Price, and the Cost of Price Sensitivity (Madera, Bussgang, Orlovski)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified · Feb 9, 2026

VCs reflect on their 'anti-portfolio,' sharing painful lessons from passing on massive hits like Netflix, Palantir, Viva, and Chime.

Flybridge Lost the $30B Viva Deal Highlighting Non-Local VC Disadvantage

Jeff Bussgang of Flybridge had a "won" deal with Viva on a Friday, only to lose it by Monday. As a Boston/New York firm chasing a hot deal in Silicon Valley, they were at a geographical disadvantage against a local firm, who ultimately led the highly successful Series A round.

Investor Stories 458: Anti Portfolio Lessons: Netflix by Mail, Palantir at the Wrong Price, and the Cost of Price Sensitivity (Madera, Bussgang, Orlovski) thumbnail

Investor Stories 458: Anti Portfolio Lessons: Netflix by Mail, Palantir at the Wrong Price, and the Cost of Price Sensitivity (Madera, Bussgang, Orlovski)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·10 days ago

Price Sensitivity Caused One VC to Repeatedly Pass on Palantir

Paul Madera of Meritech passed on Palantir four times. Despite being introduced early, his firm repeatedly concluded the price was "out of line," causing them to miss what became the highest multiple software company. This shows how strict valuation discipline can blind investors to category-defining outliers.

Investor Stories 458: Anti Portfolio Lessons: Netflix by Mail, Palantir at the Wrong Price, and the Cost of Price Sensitivity (Madera, Bussgang, Orlovski) thumbnail

Investor Stories 458: Anti Portfolio Lessons: Netflix by Mail, Palantir at the Wrong Price, and the Cost of Price Sensitivity (Madera, Bussgang, Orlovski)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·10 days ago

Documenting Passed Deals More Rigorously Than Investments Drives Investor Learning

Investor Victor Orlovski writes 10-15 pages of notes when he passes on a company, compared to only 5-6 pages for an investment. This disciplined reflection on "anti-portfolio" decisions allows him to analyze his reasoning, identify biases, and improve his investment judgment over time.

Investor Stories 458: Anti Portfolio Lessons: Netflix by Mail, Palantir at the Wrong Price, and the Cost of Price Sensitivity (Madera, Bussgang, Orlovski) thumbnail

Investor Stories 458: Anti Portfolio Lessons: Netflix by Mail, Palantir at the Wrong Price, and the Cost of Price Sensitivity (Madera, Bussgang, Orlovski)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·10 days ago

VCs Wrongly Pass on Great Teams When They 'Think For The Founder'

An investor passed on Chime's seed round despite a strong founding team. The reason: he personally thought the product "makes no sense" and couldn't see himself building it. This illustrates a common early-stage trap where VCs substitute their own product ideas for the founder's vision, rather than betting on the team.

Investor Stories 458: Anti Portfolio Lessons: Netflix by Mail, Palantir at the Wrong Price, and the Cost of Price Sensitivity (Madera, Bussgang, Orlovski) thumbnail

Investor Stories 458: Anti Portfolio Lessons: Netflix by Mail, Palantir at the Wrong Price, and the Cost of Price Sensitivity (Madera, Bussgang, Orlovski)

The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified·10 days ago