Casado argues that the market creates the company, not the other way around. He first determines if a market is viable and growing, and only then asks if the founder is the right fit for that specific market, reversing the common founder-first VC mantra.
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A common belief is that investment from a top-tier VC can guarantee a company's success. However, the hard-learned lesson is that capital alone cannot create a successful company. True success is predetermined by the founder's quality and strong product-market fit; VCs can only help navigate.
Redpoint Ventures' Erica Brescia describes a shift in their investment thesis for the AI era. They are now more likely to back young, "high-velocity" founders who "run through walls to win" over those with traditional domain expertise. Sheer speed, storytelling, and determination are becoming more critical selection criteria.
During a fundamental technology shift like the current AI wave, traditional market size analysis is pointless because new markets and behaviors are being created. Investors should de-emphasize TAM and instead bet on founders who have a clear, convicted vision for how the world will change.
WonderCo first maps a target market to find an exceptional company to back. They only choose to incubate a new company from scratch if their deep search reveals no existing "rocket" to provide fuel for, ensuring they build from a position of unique market insight.
Dara Khosrowshahi argues that entrepreneurs over-index on Total Addressable Market (TAM), which he sees mainly as a fundraising tool. The real focus should be on proving product-market fit and solid unit economics in a small, defensible niche. Once that's established, you can expand into adjacent markets.
Instead of searching for a market to serve, founders should solve a problem they personally experience. This "bottom-up" approach guarantees product-market fit for at least one person—the founder—providing a solid foundation to build upon and avoiding the common failure of abstract, top-down market analysis.
A core investment framework is to distinguish between 'pull' companies, where the market organically and virally demands the product, and 'push' companies that have to force their solution onto the market. The former indicates stronger product-market fit and a higher potential for efficient, scalable growth.
Using a child's toy analogy, demand is a pre-existing hole (e.g., a star shape) and your product is the block. Founders fail when they build a block and then search for a hole it fits. The real job is to first deeply understand the shape of the hole, then craft a block that fits it perfectly.
When evaluating revolutionary ideas, traditional Total Addressable Market (TAM) analysis is useless. VCs should instead bet on founders with a "world-bending vision" capable of inducing a new market, not just capturing an existing one. Have the humility to admit you can't predict market size and instead back the visionary founder.
Venture capital should focus on what a founder does exceptionally well, rather than penalizing them for past failures or weaknesses. Ben Horowitz uses the Adam Neumann example to illustrate their principle: judge people by their spectacular talents (like building the WeWork brand) and help them manage their flaws, which is a more effective strategy than seeking perfectly flawless individuals.
