Countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are ambivalent about US military action. Their primary fear is not a full-scale war, but a limited 'hit-and-run' strike where the US attacks and then diverts attention, leaving them 'naked and vulnerable' to Iranian retaliation without a long-term American security presence.

Shattered by their vulnerability and perceived US unreliability during the Iran conflict, Gulf states are poised for a defense spending spree. Rather than relying solely on the US, they are likely to diversify their military suppliers to include Europe and South Korea, aiming for a more independent, 'armed neutrality' posture.

The US military action, especially the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, is harming Gulf nations economically. Instead of strengthening an anti-Iran coalition, this 'half-baked' approach is eroding goodwill and pushing these crucial partners away, undermining the primary strategic benefit of the operation.

Iran's strategy involves striking non-combatant US allies like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. This imposes broad regional pain, demonstrating to the world that the economic and political costs of attacking Iran will be too high for anyone to bear, thus restoring long-term deterrence.

Feeling exposed by a US they perceive as prioritizing Israel's defense, Gulf states are pursuing a "portfolio approach" to security. This involves creating smaller, multi-country defense pacts with nations like Pakistan, Turkey, and South Korea to build resilience beyond their traditional alliance with Washington.

The primary concern for Gulf nations is the "day after" a US-led conflict. They fear a scenario where the US declares victory and departs, leaving them to deal with a weakened but still dangerous and vengeful Iranian regime, similar to Saddam Hussein's Iraq after 1991.

The main driver for US action against Iran is to stabilize the Gulf region to secure over $2 trillion in investment deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. These deals are the centerpiece of Trump's economic agenda, making the threat from Iran an existential economic one.

Iran's attempt to sow regional instability by attacking nine Arab countries backfired. Instead of creating chaos, these militarily insignificant 'pinprick' attacks eliminated neutrality and pushed Gulf states to fully support the US-Israeli mission against Iran, viewing it as a necessary response.

A cynical but plausible US strategy is to provoke conflicts, like with Iran, and then withdraw. This forces regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to manage the fallout by purchasing billions in American weaponry, creating a forced market for the defense industry.