A cynical but plausible US strategy is to provoke conflicts, like with Iran, and then withdraw. This forces regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to manage the fallout by purchasing billions in American weaponry, creating a forced market for the defense industry.
The emergence of public infighting and rivalry among startups at the Munich Security Conference is a positive indicator. It shows the European defense tech scene has moved beyond its nascent stage and is now a competitive, maturing market with clear winners and losers.
The effectiveness of Ukrainian defense technology comes from its ability to dramatically lower the 'cost per shot' by orders of magnitude compared to legacy systems. This demonstrates that financial efficiency and adaptability, not just advanced features, are decisive on the modern battlefield.
As drone hardware becomes commoditized, the key strategic value is shifting to software. Companies creating hardware-agnostic 'middleware' platforms to orchestrate diverse drone fleets, manage data, and enable swarming are becoming more critical than the drone manufacturers themselves.
The US is moving from a global deterrence posture to concentrating massive force for specific operations, as seen with Iran. This strategy denudes other theaters of critical assets, creating windows of opportunity for adversaries like China while allies are left exposed.
While recognizing AI as a decisive geopolitical tool, Europe lacks a competitive, pan-European large language model (LLM) akin to OpenAI or Anthropic. This forces reliance on US technology, creating a strategic dependency in a critical area for future defense and sovereignty.
European defense startups have a significant competitive edge by creating tech outside of US ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations). This 'ITAR island' makes their products highly valuable for export and for acquisition by US firms seeking to bypass cumbersome American export controls.
No longer a fringe academic theory, Poland is emerging as a top candidate for nuclearization. Its engineering capacity, wealth, and position next to an aggressive Russia and unreliable allies are driving serious consideration for its own nuclear deterrent, a topic now openly discussed by senior European military figures.
The US-led intervention in Libya after Muammar Gaddafi voluntarily dismantled his nuclear program serves as a key lesson for authoritarian regimes. It demonstrated that disarmament leads to punishment, not security, directly incentivizing countries like Iran and North Korea to pursue nuclear weapons for regime survival.