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China's current strategy is focused on becoming the dominant power in East Asia and the Western Pacific. While there is little evidence of a deliberate strategy for global domination, historian Odd Arne Westad warns that a great power's appetite often grows with its influence.
China's primary strategic goal is to be the leading power in East Asia and the Western Pacific. While it lacks a current plan for global domination, its appetite could grow with success, and controlling this economically vital region provides a de facto form of global preeminence.
While Xi looms large, his foreign policy is largely consistent with the path set by his predecessors. He has capitalized on China's increased power to pursue established goals more intensely, but he has not radically changed the overall direction. Focusing only on him as an individual misses this continuity.
China has shifted its assessment from eventually overtaking the U.S. to a model of parallel growth, where both nations exist as great powers on a unique tier. This recalibration doesn't diminish their confidence, as they have historically competed effectively from a weaker position.
Unlike the US, China expands its influence by offering to build highways, airports, and electrical grids for other nations. This 'soft power' approach, funded by a large trade surplus, has allowed it to gain significant control in regions like Africa without military intervention.
Xi has not fundamentally changed the trajectory of Chinese foreign policy, which was set decades ago. Rather, he has dramatically intensified its pursuit by leveraging China's vastly expanded economic, military, and technological power, making him an accelerator rather than a revolutionary.
Unlike the Soviet Union's missionary zeal to spread communism, China does not want other nations to become Chinese. Its worldview is centered on being the 'Middle Kingdom'—the sun which others orbit. It desires respect and a preeminent position, not to export its political system.
Beijing interprets America's focus on regions like Latin America or the Middle East with a 'shoulder shrug.' They see these distractions as beneficial, giving them more freedom to aggressively pursue their own interests and push allies in the Indo-Pacific without US interference.
Viewing China as a "rising" power is incorrect; it's a "reascending" one. For 70% of the years since 1500, China had the world's largest GDP. Its current trajectory is a return to its historical dominance, a framing that fundamentally alters the understanding of its global ambitions.
China concentrates its diplomatic and military resources on regions crucial to its core interests—its immediate neighbors like Taiwan and Japan. This long-standing "periphery diplomacy" explains its choice to use economic leverage, rather than direct intervention, in more distant conflicts like Iran.
China is strategically adopting a posture of stability and order-keeping. This contrasts with America's perceived role as a disruptor, allowing China to position itself as a protector of other nations' interests and subtly shift the global balance without being overtly revisionist.