The Taiwan issue is uniquely dangerous, representing three historical parallels at once: a nationalist territorial dispute (like Alsace), a potential trigger for a wider crisis (like Bosnia), and a test of great power intervention (like Belgium). This combination makes it exceptionally volatile.
Xi has not fundamentally changed the trajectory of Chinese foreign policy, which was set decades ago. Rather, he has dramatically intensified its pursuit by leveraging China's vastly expanded economic, military, and technological power, making him an accelerator rather than a revolutionary.
Xi frames himself and the CCP not just as successors to Mao, but as the fulfillment of a long arc of Chinese imperial history. He draws parallels to powerful Qing-era emperors, reimagining imperial China's legacy to legitimize the current regime's strength and global position.
China's partnership with a declining and 'remarkably irresponsible' Russia mirrors Germany's pre-WWI alliance with Austria-Hungary. This creates a significant long-term risk that China could be pulled into conflicts over issues like Ukraine, North Korea, or the Middle East that do not serve its core interests.
Historian Odd Arne Westad argues the Cold War is a flawed analogy for US-China relations. The current era is defined by economic interdependence and multipolarity, making it more akin to the complex, globalized, and dangerous environment of the early 20th century before World War I.
A key danger is that China might invade Taiwan not from a position of absolute confidence, but from the belief that its relative power is peaking. This echoes pre-WWI Germany's fear that waiting would only strengthen its adversaries, creating a 'now or never' strategic calculus.
Beijing's timeline for taking Taiwan is shrinking due to a demographic shift on the island. As younger Taiwanese feel increasingly less Chinese, leaders in Beijing fear that the window for any form of peaceful reunification is closing, raising the appeal of military options before a separate identity becomes permanent.
Historian Odd Arne Westad admits that Western analysts, himself included, were caught by surprise by the rapid pace of China’s military modernization and its ability to innovate technologically. This consistent underestimation highlights a critical intelligence and analytical gap.
China's current strategy is focused on becoming the dominant power in East Asia and the Western Pacific. While there is little evidence of a deliberate strategy for global domination, historian Odd Arne Westad warns that a great power's appetite often grows with its influence.