The government has recruited tens of thousands of poorly trained "volunteer defense forces," primarily from dominant ethnic groups. These militias target minority groups like the Fulani, effectively turning the conflict into one of ethnic cleansing and driving more people into the arms of the jihadists they are supposed to be fighting.

An act of aggression can become so popular domestically that leaders feel compelled to see it through, even if initially intended as a negotiating tactic. The Argentine junta found the Falklands invasion was "the most popular thing they'd ever done," trapping them in a conflict they couldn't easily abandon.

In mass movements and wars of attrition, having a charismatic leader is less critical than having a clearly defined enemy. As long as a figure like "the West" or the U.S. can be framed as the devil, the movement can sustain itself, even without a central figurehead to rally around.

When a leader initiates a conflict, an exit that leaves the situation worse than before is politically untenable. This dynamic creates immense pressure to avoid withdrawal and instead escalate involvement, as backing out becomes "political suicide."

Directly attacking a charismatic leader can backfire due to personal loyalty. A more effective political strategy is to target their key advisors. Removing controversial figures can weaken the leader's power structure, as it is easier to build consensus against "bad actors" than the principal.

The most potent threat to an authoritarian regime comes not from visible dissidents, who are often neutralized, but from patriotic loyalists within the system. These insiders believe the current leadership is corrupt and harming the country, making their patriotism a powerful tool that can be turned against the regime.

Initial military actions, like successful bombings, can feel like victories. However, they often fail to solve the core political issue, trapping leaders into escalating the conflict further to achieve the original strategic goal, as they don't want to accept failure.

Military strikes on industrial targets, while tactically successful, often energize the targeted population and regime. This creates political backlash that overwhelms the military effects, ultimately making the adversary stronger and more unified, as was seen in Vietnam.

Turkey's President Erdoğan is strategically leveraging his country's geopolitical importance—as a mediator and key NATO ally amid regional conflicts—to distract from domestic problems like inflation and his crackdown on political opposition. This makes Western allies overlook his autocratic excesses to keep Turkey on their side, providing him more room for domestic repression.