During a major technology shift like AI, the most valuable initial opportunities are often the simplest. Founders should resist solving complex problems immediately and instead focus on the "low-hanging fruit." Defensibility can be built later, after capitalizing on the obvious, easy wins.

As AI infrastructure giants become government-backed utilities, their investment appeal diminishes like banks after 2008. The next wave of value creation will come from stagnant, existing businesses that adopt AI to unlock new margins, leveraging their established brands and distribution channels rather than building new rails from scratch.

History shows pioneers who fund massive infrastructure shifts, like railroads or the early internet, frequently lose their investment. The real profits are captured later by companies that build services on top of the now-established, de-risked platform.

During the dot-com crash, application-layer companies like Pets.com went to zero, while infrastructure providers like Intel and Cisco survived. The lesson for AI investors is to focus on the underlying "picks and shovels"—compute, chips, and data centers—rather than consumer-facing apps that may become obsolete.

In a technology boom like the AI trade, capital first flows to core enablers (e.g., NVIDIA). The cycle then extends to first-derivative plays (e.g., data center power) and then to riskier nth-derivative ideas (e.g., quantum computing), which act as leveraged bets and are the first to crash.

In a new, high-risk category, betting on infrastructure ('shovels') isn't necessarily safer. If the category fails, both app and infra lose. But if it succeeds, the application layer captures disproportionately more value, making the infrastructure a lower-upside bet for the same level of existential risk.

Vincap International's CIO argues the AI market isn't a classic bubble. Unlike previous tech cycles, the installation phase (building infrastructure) is happening concurrently with the deployment phase (mass user adoption). This unique paradigm shift is driving real revenue and growth that supports high valuations.

Instead of betting on which AI models or applications will win, Karmel Capital focuses on the infrastructure layer (neocloud companies). This "pick and shovel" strategy provides exposure to the entire ecosystem's growth with lower valuations and less risk, as infrastructure is essential regardless of who wins at the top layers.

The enduring moat in the AI stack lies in what is hardest to replicate. Since building foundation models is significantly more difficult than building applications on top of them, the model layer is inherently more defensible and will naturally capture more value over time.