Deciding whether to back a competitor is fraught with conflict. When the speaker considered investing in Stripe, a Square executive called it a conflict, but CEO Jack Dorsey approved. This shows opinions on threats vary internally, justifying multiple checks before proceeding with a potentially conflicting investment.
Similar to the short-lived direct listing wave, the idea of staying private indefinitely will likely only apply to a handful of elite, capital-rich companies like SpaceX. The vast majority of successful startups will still follow the traditional IPO path to provide liquidity and access public markets.
Many beloved monuments were controversial upon creation. The Eiffel Tower was criticized as ugly but was primarily a demonstration of French steel-making prowess. This suggests that today's ambitious, technologically advanced projects may face similar initial public resistance before becoming iconic.
During a major technology shift like AI, the most valuable initial opportunities are often the simplest. Founders should resist solving complex problems immediately and instead focus on the "low-hanging fruit." Defensibility can be built later, after capitalizing on the obvious, easy wins.
Societies at their peak build large-scale public art to capture their values and ambition, a practice largely dormant in the U.S. since Mount Rushmore. Reviving this tradition, perhaps with modern materials like carbon fiber, can inspire progress and create lasting cultural symbols for the next generation.
The dot-com era saw ~2,000 companies go public, but only a dozen survived meaningfully. The current AI wave will likely follow a similar pattern, with most companies failing or being acquired despite the hype. Founders should prepare for this reality by considering their exit strategy early.
The path from angel to large fund manager doesn't require a traditional start. When personal capital runs out, using SPVs for high-demand deals builds a track record and LP relationships. This deal-driven, bottoms-up approach can organically lead to raising a dedicated fund.