Banks started in the 80s and 90s are led by founders nearing retirement. With no new generation of talent eager to run small, three-branch banks, these institutions are increasingly looking for an exit. This succession problem is a primary driver of M&A activity in the sector.
The narrative that young, tech-savvy customers will abandon local banks is flawed. As long as community banks can provide competitive digital services and remove the need for physical branch visits, they can retain this demographic. Stickiness is a function of convenience, not just brand.
The narrative of a broad AI investment boom is misleading. 60% of the incremental CapEx dollars in the first half of 2025 came from just four firms: Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft. Owning or being underweight these four stocks is a highly specific bet on the capital cycle of AI.
Contrary to popular belief, community banks' CRE loans are not to large, vacant office towers. Their portfolios consist of local, stable properties like gas stations and small professional offices. This localized knowledge and asset type make their CRE exposure far less risky than that of larger banks.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange has issued an ultimatum to companies: get your price above book value or be delisted. This is forcing an end to centuries-old practices of corporate cross-ownership and compelling companies to engage in buybacks and other shareholder-friendly actions, providing a powerful catalyst for the market.
History shows that markets with a CAPE ratio above 30 combined with high-yield credit spreads below 3% precede periods of poor returns. This rare and dangerous combination was previously seen in 2000, 2007, and 2019, suggesting extreme caution is warranted for U.S. equities.
Michael Mauboussin's research reveals a surprising trend. Despite a long period of low interest rates, non-financial corporate debt to total capital is around 15% today, significantly lower than the historical average of 26%. This suggests balance sheets are stronger than commonly perceived.
Success in community bank investing doesn't require complex esoteric analysis. It boils down to four key metrics: high capital levels (equity-to-assets), low non-performing assets (under 2%), stable or growing book value, and a low price-to-tangible book value (under 85%).