Geopolitical competition with China has forced the U.S. government to treat AI development as a national security priority, similar to the Manhattan Project. This means the massive AI CapEx buildout will be implicitly backstopped to prevent an economic downturn, effectively turning the sector into a regulated utility.
Programmed strategies from systematic funds, which delever when volatility (VIX) rises and relever when it falls, are the primary drivers of short-term market action. These automated flows, along with pension rebalancing, have more impact than traditional earnings or economic data, especially in low-liquidity holiday periods.
The immediate and hostile reaction from institutional economists to Mike Green's argument—that the true poverty line is closer to $150k—is more telling than the specific numbers. The backlash reveals a deep societal nerve and a fundamental disconnect between official economic metrics and the lived reality of financial struggle for many.
Boomers control traditional, low-volatility assets (housing, stocks, bonds), making it impossible for younger generations to catch up via conventional means. High-volatility frontier assets like crypto represent the only viable path to meaningful wealth creation, transforming crypto into a critical political issue for attracting younger voters.
As AI infrastructure giants become government-backed utilities, their investment appeal diminishes like banks after 2008. The next wave of value creation will come from stagnant, existing businesses that adopt AI to unlock new margins, leveraging their established brands and distribution channels rather than building new rails from scratch.
The current administration's singular focus on AI has exacerbated a K-shaped recovery, hurting the average voter. To win re-election, politicians will be forced to stimulate other sectors of the economy to lift "Main Street" out of recession, making the concentrated AI/Meg7 trade less attractive moving forward.
The post-Powell Fed is likely to reverse the QE playbook. The strategy will involve aggressive rate cuts to lower the cost of capital, combined with deregulation (like SLR exemptions) to incentivize commercial banks to take over money creation. This marks a fundamental shift from central bank-led liquidity to private sector-led credit expansion.