The enduring moat in the AI stack lies in what is hardest to replicate. Since building foundation models is significantly more difficult than building applications on top of them, the model layer is inherently more defensible and will naturally capture more value over time.
The founders initially feared their data collection hardware would be easily copied. However, they discovered the true challenge and defensible moat lay in scaling the full-stack system—integrating hardware iterations, data pipelines, and training loops. The unexpected difficulty of this process created a powerful competitive advantage.
To build a durable business on top of foundation models, go beyond a simple API call. Gamma creates a moat by deeply owning an entire workflow (visual communication) and orchestrating over 20 different specialized AI models, each chosen for a specific sub-task in the user journey.
Pre-reasoning AI models were static assets that depreciated quickly. The advent of reasoning allows models to learn from user interactions, re-establishing the classic internet flywheel: more usage generates data that improves the product, which attracts more users. This creates a powerful, compounding advantage for the leading labs.
The notion of building a business as a 'thin wrapper' around a foundational model like GPT is flawed. Truly defensible AI products, like Cursor, build numerous specific, fine-tuned models to deeply understand a user's domain. This creates a data and performance moat that a generic model cannot easily replicate, much like Salesforce was more than just a 'thin wrapper' on a database.
While today's focus is on text-based LLMs, the true, defensible AI battleground will be in complex modalities like video. Generating video requires multiple interacting models and unique architectures, creating far greater potential for differentiation and a wider competitive moat than text-based interfaces, which will become commoditized.
The long-held belief that a complex codebase provides a durable competitive advantage is becoming obsolete due to AI. As software becomes easier to replicate, defensibility shifts away from the technology itself and back toward classic business moats like network effects, brand reputation, and deep industry integration.
In a new, high-risk category, betting on infrastructure ('shovels') isn't necessarily safer. If the category fails, both app and infra lose. But if it succeeds, the application layer captures disproportionately more value, making the infrastructure a lower-upside bet for the same level of existential risk.
Creating a basic AI coding tool is easy. The defensible moat comes from building a vertically integrated platform with its own backend infrastructure like databases, user management, and integrations. This is extremely difficult for competitors to replicate, especially if they rely on third-party services like Superbase.
The concept of "sovereignty" is evolving from data location to model ownership. A company's ultimate competitive moat will be its proprietary foundation model, which embeds tacit knowledge and institutional memory, making the firm more efficient than the open market.
Contrary to the belief that distribution is the new moat, the crucial differentiator in AI is talent. Building a truly exceptional AI product is incredibly nuanced and complex, requiring a rare skill set. The scarcity of people who can build off models in an intelligent, tasteful way is the real technological moat, not just access to data or customers.