The potential for an AI-driven, post-capitalist world of abundance is real. However, the path there will likely be as destructive as a world war, as the rapid upending of the economic order will throw society into chaos before stability is achieved.
Despite narratives of higher purpose, the bedrock of modern life is economic specialization. This system ensures survival and allows for hyper-specialization, which is why economic disruptions so easily unravel societal stability and lead to global conflict.
The system often blamed as capitalism is distorted. True capitalism requires the risk of failure as a clearing mechanism. Today's system is closer to cronyism, where government interventions like bailouts and regulatory capture protect established players from failure.
The appeal of a populist leader lies in their rejection of traditional political norms. When the electorate feels betrayed by the established "political class," they gravitate toward figures whose rhetoric is a deliberate and stark contrast, signaling they are an outsider.
People feeling financially trapped don't become more responsible. Instead, they enter a psychological "lost domain" where they re-evaluate risk and seek a single, high-stakes move to recover everything at once, often leading to a downward spiral.
Humans evolved to cooperate via reciprocity—sharing resources expecting future return. To prevent exploitation, we also evolved a strong instinct to identify and punish "freeloaders." This creates a fundamental tension with social welfare systems that can be perceived as enabling non-contribution.
History shows pioneers who fund massive infrastructure shifts, like railroads or the early internet, frequently lose their investment. The real profits are captured later by companies that build services on top of the now-established, de-risked platform.
A surge in highly speculative assets may not indicate a strong economy. It can be a sign that people feel so far behind financially that they're placing huge bets, believing in an "only up" market out of desperation rather than confidence.
Japan's manga industry's success stems from a deliberate strategy to stay focused on young readers. In contrast, the US comic market aged up with its audience, losing its pipeline of new fans and guaranteeing long-term decline. This applies to any industry.