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Sequoia's founder Don Valentine advised partners to use a 2x2 matrix of founders you like vs. founders who make money. A VC's job is to find the quadrant that generates returns, as personal likeability can be a misleading signal for success. Arrogance, for instance, might be unlikable but effective.
Investor Viktor Orlovsky reveals his mental model for evaluating founders: he compares new prospects to his "role models" of obsession and leadership. This method of pattern-matching against successful archetypes from his portfolio helps him decide who to back.
When evaluating founders with abrasive personalities, some VCs apply a specific mental model. As advised by Jason Green of Emergence Capital, if a founder's brilliance is perceived to be 50 times greater than their difficult nature, the investment is still worth making. This provides a framework for backing exceptional but challenging individuals.
Sequoia quantifies its search for 'outlier founders' in statistical terms. An exceptional founder is three standard deviations above the mean in a key trait, but a true outlier is four. This statistical lens explains their high bar, reviewing around 1,000 companies for every single investment.
A VC anecdote reveals a critical flaw in founder selection: optimizing for "coachability" can filter out the sharp, difficult "diamond" personalities who often generate the greatest returns. True alpha comes from backing the brilliant and uncoachable, not the merely compliant.
Brian Halligan, Sequoia's in-house CEO coach, uses a five-part framework called 'LOCKS' to assess founders: Lovable (can inspire a team), Obsessed (deep founder-market fit), Chip on the shoulder (driven by something to prove), Knowledgeable (domain expert), and Student (a constant learner).
Reflecting on his career, Jerry Murdock found that the founders he personally "liked" most often lacked the necessary drive to succeed. The biggest wins came from "sharp-edged," obsessive, and even socially challenging individuals, suggesting that investor discomfort can be a positive signal for founder potential.
Sequoia's founder taught that the best investments are in individuals who are both exceptional and "not so easy to get along with." These founders challenge convention and refuse to accept the world as it is, a trait that makes them unconventional but also uniquely capable of building category-defining companies.
While product and market are crucial, the most important factor in an early-stage bet is the founder. This is because most startups pivot significantly. A resilient, adaptable founder who can execute through change is more valuable than a perfect initial idea, leading to the ranking: Founder > Market > Product.
Sequoia's reputation for being brutally direct with founders is evolving into a high-status brand attribute. Ambitious founders are starting to prefer this 'stab you in the front' approach over unconditional support, viewing it as a necessary form of pressure to drive exceptional performance in a gladiatorial arena.
In early-stage investing, the quality of the founder can be more important than the initial business concept. A strong founder is seen as someone who will eventually find success, even if the first idea requires a pivot.