Meaningful reform in Iran is unlikely until the succession of the 86-year-old Supreme Leader is resolved. Deep uncertainty over who will hold power paralyzes the political system, preventing any faction from making significant changes and forcing the country into a holding pattern until the leadership transition occurs.

Beyond the immediate conflict, Israeli strategists see a long-term opportunity. If the current regime falls, they hope to restore the strong alliance that existed with non-Arab Iran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which was based on shared regional interests.

The ruling elite has inverted from 80% ideologues at the revolution's start to 80% charlatans today. Expedience and financial gain, not revolutionary zeal, now bind the regime's core. This ideological hollowness makes the regime more brittle than its rhetoric suggests.

The Iranian populace is exhausted with theocratic rule after five decades. Any future authoritarian leader will likely be a product of the intelligence or security services, appealing to nationalism rather than revolutionary ideology. The era of the turban-wearing ruler is over.

The progression of protest slogans from demanding a vote recount in 2009 ('Where is my vote?') to calling for regime overthrow today ('Death to the supreme leader') indicates a fundamental change. Protestors no longer seek to work within the existing system but aim to dismantle it entirely.

The current Iranian protests are uniquely potent because the regime is at its weakest geopolitically. The loss of regional proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, coupled with key ally Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine, has left the Iranian government more isolated and vulnerable than during any previous wave of unrest.

Dara Khosrowshahi theorizes the Shah of Iran's regime collapsed because he modernized too fast, focused excessively on military power over industrial growth, and failed to bring along rural populations and integrate Islam into his vision, creating a power vacuum for the Islamic regime to exploit.

Unlike the 2022 protests led by middle-class women over social freedoms, the current unrest is driven by jobless young men—a traditionally pro-regime group—angry about economic collapse. This shift in demographics and motivation makes the government's usual appeasement tactics less effective.

Facing severe economic pressure from sanctions and inflation, the Iranian government has relaxed enforcement of the hijab law. This is a calculated concession to appease the population and release social pressure, effectively trading social freedom for economic stability without ceding significant political power.