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A fund showing a 7x return on paper is already a massive success. The logical move is to sell positions and realize those gains for LPs. The tendency to "go for it" reveals a flawed incentive structure that prioritizes future potential over locking in exceptional returns.

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Limited Partners should resist pressuring VCs for early exits to lock in DPI. The best companies compound value at incredible rates, making it optimal to hold winners. Instead, LPs should manage portfolio duration and liquidity by building a balanced portfolio of early-stage, growth, and secondary fund investments.

Despite the focus on markups and paper gains, top VCs believe the ultimate measure of a fund's success is returning cash to investors (DPI). This focus on liquidity is so critical that even a young fund should signal its commitment by distributing cash from early, minor exits.

Contrary to the instinct to sell a big winner, top fund managers often hold onto their best-performing companies. The initial 10x return is a strong signal of a best-in-class product, team, and market, indicating potential for continued exponential growth rather than a peak.

To remove emotion from portfolio management, Amplify has a policy to begin considering secondary sales once a position hits a 10x return. They then trim the position in tranches over subsequent funding rounds, allowing them to lock in gains and de-risk the fund without exiting a winner entirely.

While investing (buying) gets the attention, the actual job of a VC is disciplined selling to return capital to LPs. This requires constantly re-underwriting positions to determine if they can still meet the fund's target returns from their current valuation, rather than holding on indefinitely.

Private equity funds, driven by IRR targets and fund lifecycles, often pass up good exit opportunities in hopes of maximizing returns later. This can backfire if the market turns. A better strategy is to sell opportunistically into a rising market, even if it feels early, rather than risk missing the window.

Seed funds that primarily act as a supply chain for Series A investors—optimizing for quick markups rather than fundamental value—are failing. This 'factory model' pushes them into the hyper-competitive 'white hot center' of the market, where deals are priced to perfection and outlier returns are rare.

In frothy markets with multi-billion dollar valuations, a key learned behavior from 2021 is for VCs to sell 10-20% of their stake during a large funding round. This provides early liquidity and distributions (DPI) to LPs, who are grateful for the cash back, and de-risks the fund's position.

Investors fixate on selecting the right companies, but the real money is made or lost in the decision of when to sell or hold a winning position. The timing of an exit can create a 100x difference in outcomes. Having a disciplined approach to portfolio management and liquidity is more critical to fund performance than the initial investment choice.

Despite widespread complaints about a lack of liquidity, LPs in an a16z fund unanimously rejected the opportunity to sell shares in top portfolio companies like Stripe. This reveals that LPs want to ride their winners and only seek exits for their less promising investments, creating a fundamental market mismatch.

Venture Funds with High Paper Markups Should Liquidate Instead of Chasing Growth | RiffOn