Contrary to the instinct to sell a big winner, top fund managers often hold onto their best-performing companies. The initial 10x return is a strong signal of a best-in-class product, team, and market, indicating potential for continued exponential growth rather than a peak.
The long-dated nature of biotech investing makes it uniquely vulnerable to high interest rates. A 5% rate applied over a 10-15 year development cycle can compress valuation multiples by three to fourfold, drastically changing the financial landscape for the industry.
The path for biotech entrepreneurs is a long slog requiring immense conviction. Success ("liftoff") isn't just a clinical trial result, but achieving self-sustaining profitability and growth. This high bar means founders may need to persevere through years of market indifference and financing challenges.
When a portfolio company is public, liquid, and highly appreciated, some VCs distribute shares directly to their Limited Partners (LPs). This tactic returns value while allowing each LP to decide whether to hold for further upside or sell for immediate cash, effectively offloading the hold/sell decision.
The mechanism of GLP-1s extends far beyond fat reduction. By increasing insulin sensitivity in every cell—liver, kidney, nerve cells—they effectively help cells process insulin like they did when younger. This positions them as a pervasive longevity product, similar to statins, for pushing back on age-related decline.
China has developed a first-rate biotech effort, enabling U.S. firms to buy or license preclinical assets more efficiently than building them domestically. This creates an arbitrage opportunity, leveraging China's R&D capabilities while relying on U.S. expertise and capital for global commercialization.
Despite a long-standing data-science-driven investment thesis, Foresight Capital's founder Jim Tananbaum states that AI tools have not yet objectively led to increased investment returns. The technology is still maturing, highlighting a reality gap between the hype around AI in VC and its current practical impact.