AI is a foundational layer, not a niche. Asking if a company is an 'AI startup' will soon be as meaningless as asking if it has a website. The adoption timeline is radically compressed: what took the internet 15 years for ubiquity will take AI only four, with non-adopters facing extinction.
In a market obsessed with fundraising as validation, the best performers can be companies that fly under the radar. A non-AI portfolio company is profitable at $15M ARR and growing 40% monthly without further funding, optimizing for low dilution and potentially becoming a top-quartile outcome.
As consumers become inundated with AI and digital experiences, a strong counter-trend is emerging. This creates venture-scale opportunities for companies focused on tangible hardware, 'dumb' phones, and real-world services that facilitate human connection offline, as demonstrated by Greylock's investment in a kids' landline.
Despite the focus on markups and paper gains, top VCs believe the ultimate measure of a fund's success is returning cash to investors (DPI). This focus on liquidity is so critical that even a young fund should signal its commitment by distributing cash from early, minor exits.
The most powerful consumer AI applications solve tangible human problems. Startups like Real Roots (building friendships) and Sunflower (addiction recovery) use AI not as the end product, but as a powerful matching and support engine to drive meaningful, real-world outcomes and connections offline.
The traditional PE strategy involves buying legacy companies and cutting costs by ~10%. AI enables startups to rebuild entire industries from scratch, slashing costs by 90-99%. This allows VCs to fund disruptors that can out-compete and dismantle sectors previously dominated by PE roll-ups.
AI isn't just an efficiency tool; it fundamentally accelerates core business growth. A portfolio company achieved a 4.5x markup in 9 months by reaching $10M ARR in 14 months. This speed, which cuts the traditional 18-24 month timeline in half, is redefining early-stage venture capital benchmarks.
The long-standing 8-12 year path to IPO is being drastically shortened by AI. Companies can now reach IPO-ready milestones like $100M ARR in just 4-5 years. This compression, combined with a backlog of large private companies, suggests a massive liquidity event is imminent for venture capital, ending the recent drought.