Seed funds that primarily act as a supply chain for Series A investors—optimizing for quick markups rather than fundamental value—are failing. This 'factory model' pushes them into the hyper-competitive 'white hot center' of the market, where deals are priced to perfection and outlier returns are rare.
The 'classic' VC model hunts for unproven talent in niche areas. The now-dominant 'super compounder' model argues the biggest market inefficiency is underestimating the best companies. This justifies investing in obvious winners at any price, believing that outlier returns will cover the high entry cost.
Unlike past platform shifts that caught many off-guard, the AI wave is universally anticipated. This 'consensus innovation' intensifies all existing competitive pressures, as every investor—from mega-funds to accelerators—is aggressively pursuing the same perceived opportunities, pushing factors like Power Law belief to an extreme.
The dominant strategy of investing huge sums into companies believed to be generational outliers has a critical failure mode: it can destroy viable businesses. Not every market can absorb hyper-growth, and forcing capital into a 'pretty good' company can lead to churn, stalls, and ultimately, a ruined asset.
Adhering to strict, dogmatic rules—such as fixed ownership targets or avoiding certain stages—is a primary cause of missing outlier investments. The podcast highlights passing on Cruise due to ownership concerns as a key example. True discipline requires adapting to market changes, not blindly following old rules.
Y Combinator's model pushes companies to raise at high valuations, often bypassing traditional seed rounds. Simultaneously, mega-funds cherry-pick the most proven founders at prices seed funds cannot compete with. This leaves traditional seed funds fighting for a narrowing and less attractive middle ground.