Beijing’s core strategy for Taiwan is to convince its populace that "resistance is futile" and no outside help is coming. U.S. arms sales and rhetorical support from allies are particularly disruptive because they directly counter this psychological narrative of isolation, undermining China's goal of a coerced unification.
Related Insights
China's tough stance toward US allies is not a diplomatic blunder but a deliberate strategy. By applying pressure, Beijing aims to demonstrate that complaining to a distracted Washington is futile, thereby forcing allies to eventually accommodate Chinese interests.
The U.S. operation to capture Maduro serves as a real-world case study for China's potential 'decapitation' strike against Taiwan. China has already rehearsed such scenarios in mock-ups of Taipei's presidential palace. This event demonstrates the feasibility of a quick, surgical strike, which is more aligned with the CCP's goals than a costly amphibious invasion.
China's showcase of advanced military hardware, like its new aircraft carrier, is primarily a psychological tool. The strategy is to build a military so 'forbiddingly huge' that the US would hesitate to engage, allowing China to achieve goals like reabsorbing Taiwan without fighting. This suggests their focus is on perceived power to deter intervention.
Chinese leadership believes time is not on its side regarding Taiwan. The growing sense of a distinct Taiwanese identity, especially among younger generations, creates pressure to act before a political 'reunification' becomes impossible, thus increasing the risk of military action.
Contrary to the perception of Taiwan as uniformly pro-independence, its government is politically divided. While the prime minister is pro-independence, the parliament is controlled by the KMT party, which now advocates for reunification with mainland China, creating an internal political avenue for Beijing's influence.
An expert from Rhodium Group assesses the probability of a physical military incursion onto Taiwan in the next year as "virtually zero percent." Such an action would represent a complete failure of China's policy of achieving its goals without costly force.
China's strategy for Taiwan likely mirrors its 2019 Hong Kong takeover. Instead of a direct military assault, Beijing will use political influence, espionage, and legislative changes to create administrative bridges, making any physical resistance illegal before troops ever move in.
Xi Jinping's willingness to decapitate his military leadership suggests he feels secure about the external environment. He perceives no immediate crisis over Taiwan, giving him the political space to conduct a thorough and disruptive internal consolidation.
Instead of a full-scale invasion, China is employing an "anaconda strategy" of constant, low-level pressure. Tactics like cutting undersea cables and sending drones are designed to exhaust and demoralize Taiwan, making a military response from the US difficult to justify.
The most significant point of friction for ordinary Chinese citizens is the constant U.S. military presence near its borders, such as naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait and bases in South Korea and Japan. This sense of being militarily encircled is a more potent source of public frustration than economic disputes.
