The Cuban government failed to implement necessary economic reforms during the 'Obama window' of opportunity, leaving the economy fragile and far more susceptible to the subsequent 'maximum pressure' campaign from the U.S.

The successful removal of Maduro is a significant failure for Cuban intelligence services, which have a long history of protecting allied regimes in Latin America. For decades, Cuba has 'punched above its weight,' providing a security shield to leaders like Maduro. This event raises questions about the decline of their once-feared capabilities.

An expert assesses a 70-80% probability that Cuba will cut a deal with the Trump administration, similar to Venezuela's. Lacking a foreign patron like the USSR or Chavez-era Venezuela, the Cuban regime is motivated by economic desperation to make a pragmatic deal, trading alignment for relief from US sanctions to maintain power.

In a political breakdown, the most probable danger isn't a popular uprising against an intervention, but the exploitation of Cuba's weak banking system and prime real estate by criminal groups for massive money laundering operations.

Despite facing extreme economic scarcity, crippling power outages, and decades of US pressure, the Cuban government's collapse is not imminent. Analysts warn against underestimating the regime's staying power, citing its highly disciplined organization and a core of revolutionaries who have defied predictions of their demise.

A decade ago, regional solidarity pressured the U.S. to normalize relations. Today, Latin America is fragmented, and many leaders see Cuba's crisis as its own fault, removing a key diplomatic lever that existed during the Obama era.

The US strategy in Cuba may not be to oust the Castro family entirely, but to replace the current president while leaving the core power structure and even Castro relatives intact. This mirrors the approach in Venezuela, suggesting a pragmatic rather than purely ideological goal.

By refusing to bend to pressure, the Cuban government forces the US into a difficult position: either back down or escalate to a full-scale invasion, a politically unpalatable option the US wants to avoid.

Cuba's infrastructure and military are already in such poor shape that aerial attacks would have limited impact. The regime could simply absorb the damage, leading to a stalemate and increased suffering for the population without any political change.