Instead of incremental planning, run "megatrend workshops" to identify major societal or technological shifts 15-20 years out. By working backward from that inevitable future, you can define what your company needs to do in 5 years, and therefore what you must invest in today.
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To vet ambitious ideas like self-sailing cargo ships, first ask if they are an inevitable part of the world in 100 years. This filters for true long-term value. If the answer is yes, the next strategic challenge is to compress that timeline and build it within a 10-year venture cycle.
Palantir's product strategy is "more artistic than science." Instead of reacting to current market demands, the company builds solutions that tap into deep, misunderstood societal trends, much like an artist captures the future zeitgeist. This approach means creating products years before their relevance becomes obvious.
Don't just tweak last year's product plan. Start from a blank slate by defining business goals first, then allocate resources to the value propositions needed to win. This avoids getting stuck in maintenance mode and forces a focus on strategic priorities.
The rapid pace of AI innovation means today's cutting-edge research is irrelevant in three months. This creates a core challenge for founders: establishing a stable, long-term company vision when the underlying technology is in constant, rapid flux. The solution is to anchor on the macro trend, not the specific implementation.
Large goals are paralyzing without a clear path. Instruct an AI to take your five-year vision and break it down into a logical sequence of yearly, quarterly, and weekly milestones. This ensures you do the right things in the right order, preventing wasted effort and making the goal approachable.
NVIDIA's long-term vision isn't based on incremental forecasts. CEO Jensen Huang's method is to envision the technological landscape 20 years in the future and then architect a roadmap by working backward from that endpoint. This approach enables breakthrough innovations rather than just iterative improvements.
Most product orgs focus on the 6-12 month medium term, which is the hardest to predict and control. Shopify's design teams are pushed to ignore this messy middle and focus only on the very long-term North Star and the very short-term actions they can take today, creating a more effective planning process.
The vague advice to 'live in the future' becomes practical when you use emerging tech (like AI agents in 2022) to solve your own business problems. By being an early adopter, you encounter the novel challenges that the mass market will face in 1-2 years, revealing the next wave of demand before it's obvious.
Nubar Afeyan argues that companies should pursue two innovation tracks. Continuous innovation should build from the present forward. Breakthroughs, however, require envisioning a future state without a clear path and working backward to identify the necessary enabling steps.
Instead of predicting short-term outcomes, focus on macro trends that seem inevitable over a decade (e.g., more e-commerce, more 3D interaction). This framework, used by Tim Ferriss to invest in Shopify and by Roblox for mobile, helps identify high-potential areas and build with conviction.