Instead of predicting short-term outcomes, focus on macro trends that seem inevitable over a decade (e.g., more e-commerce, more 3D interaction). This framework, used by Tim Ferriss to invest in Shopify and by Roblox for mobile, helps identify high-potential areas and build with conviction.
Related Insights
After a decade of abundant "growth capex" building new infrastructure, the economic pendulum is swinging towards "maintenance capex." This creates a massive, overlooked opportunity for technologies that service existing assets, like predictive software, acoustic sensors, and remote repair robots.
Initial data suggested the market for design tools was too small to build a large business. Figma's founders bet on the trend that design was becoming a key business differentiator, which would force the market to expand. They focused on building for the trend, not the existing TAM.
When revenue stalled, Roblox wasted months on small fixes. The real solution was a difficult strategic shift: creating the Robux virtual currency. This aligned creator incentives with platform growth and solved the root problem instead of tinkering with symptoms.
There appears to be a predictable 5-10 year lag between a startup's innovation gaining traction (e.g., Calendly) and a tech giant commoditizing it as a feature (e.g., Google Calendar's scheduling). This "commoditization window" is the crucial timeframe for a startup to build a brand, network effects, and a durable moat.
To vet ambitious ideas like self-sailing cargo ships, first ask if they are an inevitable part of the world in 100 years. This filters for true long-term value. If the answer is yes, the next strategic challenge is to compress that timeline and build it within a 10-year venture cycle.
A "golden category" is a market that adds at least one billion dollars of net new ARR in a single year across all products. Identifying these categories, like code generation today, is crucial for multi-stage funds. The immense market pull means they are almost guaranteed to produce massive outcomes, making it essential to have a bet in the space.
Unlike SaaS startups focused on finding product-market fit (market risk), deep tech ventures tackle immense technical challenges. If they succeed, they enter massive, pre-existing trillion-dollar markets like energy or shipping where demand is virtually guaranteed, eliminating market risk entirely.
Although Moonshot AI's platform can optimize any digital experience, the company deliberately targets only e-commerce as its initial market. This "laser focused" beachhead strategy allows the early-stage startup to concentrate resources and build a strong foundation before expanding into other verticals.
Consumer tech is in a cyclical upswing driven by AI. Unlike the previous era dominated by paid acquisition, today's founders can win through product ambition alone. Massive organic consumer interest in AI means if you're not getting distribution, the problem is your product, not your marketing budget.
Most product orgs focus on the 6-12 month medium term, which is the hardest to predict and control. Shopify's design teams are pushed to ignore this messy middle and focus only on the very long-term North Star and the very short-term actions they can take today, creating a more effective planning process.
